CryptoQuant says Bitcoin flipped into a new bull regime after its Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in a week and BTC rallied 24% since August 17 to an intraday high of $81,272, trading near $79,224, but a close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000 is needed to confirm the bull market. Short-term overheating risks include trader unrealized profit margins at 20.5% (highest since June 2025), record whale realizations of $614 million on August 20 and rising exchange inflows for BTC, ETH and XRP, while macro catalysts such as the US Treasury doubling long-term bond buybacks to ~$4 billion per operation and hinted US BTC buying have supported crypto demand.

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In Brief

Bitcoin's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80, its fastest flip in a year.
CryptoQuant says the $83,000 365-day average must break to confirm the bull market.
Trader profit margins at 20.5% and record whale selling raise correction risks.

Bitcoin (BTC) has flipped into a new bull market regime, according to CryptoQuant, after its Bull Score surged from 30 to 80 in a single week. The firm calls it the fastest reversal in a year.

One hurdle remains before the shift becomes official. Bitcoin must close above its 365-day moving average, which sits near $83,000 today.

Bitcoin just entered a new bull market.Bull Score: 30 → 80 in a week, the fastest flip in a year.$83K is the only thing left standing in the way. pic.twitter.com/7nD1bb14QM
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 25, 2026

A 24% Rally Rebuilds the Bitcoin Bull Market Case

Bitcoin has climbed 24% since Monday, August 17, touching an intraday peak of $81,272 on Binance. That marks its highest level since May 15, 2026. At press time, BTC traded near $79,224, up 1.9% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto market data.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Two macro catalysts drove the move. The US Treasury said it will double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9. Markets also rallied after Trump’s Bitcoin purchase hint suggested Washington may buy BTC directly.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score, a composite of 10 on-chain and market metrics, now reads its most bullish since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded at $124,000. Eight of the 10 inputs currently flash green.

CryptoQuant Bull Score Index chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Demand data supports the shift. Apparent spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December. Spot and futures demand are also expanding together for the first time since early October 2025. BeInCrypto recently examined similar crypto demand signals that had yet to confirm

“Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market… Bitcoin’s price still has to cross above its 365-day MA ($83K today) for the bull market to be ‘officially’ confirmed,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, added, suggesting that the data looks constructive but incomplete.

Overheating Signals Cloud the $83,000 Confirmation Test

The same report warns that the market looks stretched in the short term. Trader unrealized profit margins spiked to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025.

Meanwhile, whales realized a record $614 million in profits on August 20. Exchange inflows for BTC, Ethereum (ETH), and XRP have also jumped, a pattern that often precedes selling pressure.

Bitcoin Bull Score Signals Including Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse. Source: CryptoQuant

Broader risk appetite also leans bullish, with asset managers holding nearly $375 billion in long S&P 500 futures, close to record highs. Their emerging and developed market exposure also sits at or near records.

Institutional investors are extremely bullish worldwide:Long positioning in the S&P 500 futures among asset managers is up to ~$375 billion, near its highest level on record.This is just ~$20 billion below the peak posted in May 2026.Since April 2025, bullish bets by asset… pic.twitter.com/gVxKLJhlvm
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 25, 2026

The rally follows Bitcoin’s strongest weekly close since 2024. Confirmation now depends on a decisive close above $83,000. The other question is whether rising exchange inflows deliver the correction Moreno flagged.

Read the article at BeInCrypto