Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s muted response to negative headlines — including MicroStrategy selling and STRC sliding toward $75, Clarity Act odds falling from the mid-40s into the teens, and a $116 million Coldcard exploit — may signal crypto winter is nearing a bottom and could presage a stronger end to the year. He expects slow institutional adoption via wealth management platforms and ETF adoption to be the next capital catalyst, noting Bitwise processed $600-700 million in in-kind ETF conversions and adviser approvals for products like a Solana staking ETF, and recommends most holdings in ETFs with some cold storage for security and self-custody.

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In Brief

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin may be nearing crypto winter's bottom.
He cites Saylor's selling, STRC's slide, and fading Clarity Act odds as evidence.
Hougan points to wealth management platforms as Bitcoin's next quiet buying catalyst.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told Bloomberg that Bitcoin’s (BTC) refusal to react to negative headlines may signal the bear market has run its course. He pointed to a string of setbacks the asset shrugged off in recent months.

Hougan said wealth management platforms, not short-term hype, will be the next driver pulling fresh capital into Bitcoin. He also weighed in on how much of an investor’s holdings belong in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) versus cold storage.

Bad News Stops Moving the Market

Hougan listed several setbacks Bitcoin absorbed without much price damage.

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has started selling his Bitcoin reserves through the company, and the firm’s STRC preferred stock slid toward $75. STRC, nicknamed “Stretch,” is Strategy’s preferred share designed to trade near $100 par. One of Bitcoin’s biggest backers flinched, and the price hardly moved.

Meanwhile, odds of the Clarity Act passing, a bill setting federal rules for digital asset markets, fell from the mid-40s into the teens, Hougan also pointed out. Hougan also referenced the $116 million Coldcard hardware wallet exploit, which again barely moved Bitcoin’s price, unlike past cycles, when bear markets tend to overreact to bad news and ignore good news.

“We’re maybe overindexing to good news. I think it’s a sign that we may be at the bottom of this crypto winter and that we may have a strong end of the year.” Hougan said.

Hougan stopped short of calling a firm bottom, framing it instead as a signal worth watching rather than a certainty.

Wealth Platforms as the Next Catalyst

Hougan said large wealth management platforms represent Bitcoin’s next marginal buyer, describing it as a slow-moving shift rather than a single event.

He noted several advisory platforms approved Bitwise’s own Solana (SOL) staking ETF, BSOL, even during a market down roughly 50% from its highs, which he attributed to advisor demand rather than speculation.

He also estimated, without exact figures on hand, that Bitwise has processed $600 million to $700 million in tax-free in-kind ETF conversions over the past year.

ETFs Versus Self-Custody

Asked how a hypothetical million-dollar Bitcoin holder should split assets, Hougan said most should sit in ETFs, punting his own company’s options, like the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB). He added that a smaller portion should be kept in cold storage as an opt-out option. He added that ETFs are not necessarily the final form these products will take as the industry matures.

Hougan’s framing rests on Bitcoin’s response to bad news rather than a specific price target. The next round of negative headlines will show whether that resilience holds.

Read the article at BeInCrypto