BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has declared that the Bitcoin bull market is already underway, arguing in a recent blog post that the rally began in late February. Hayes links the move to a surge in fiat-based credit expansion driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, rising military expenditures, and spending on physical supply chain security.

Macroeconomic Drivers Behind Hayes’ Bullish Outlook

Hayes points to unprecedented capital expenditure in AI as a primary catalyst. He notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks continue to inject liquidity into the financial system, a trend he expects to accelerate. “The expansion of fiat credit is inevitable given the scale of government and corporate spending on AI, defense, and infrastructure,” Hayes wrote.

He also highlights a declining trust in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which he believes is prompting a shift of capital into physical infrastructure and commodity stockpiles. This reallocation, in his view, will further fuel fiat expansion and ultimately benefit Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.

Price Targets and Portfolio Strategy

Hayes argues it is a foregone conclusion that Bitcoin will surpass $126,000, with a break above $90,000 likely to accelerate the rally. He disclosed that his asset management firm, Maelstrom, has increased its portfolio risk exposure to the maximum level.

Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes expressed particular optimism about NEAR Protocol (NEAR), following earlier positive views on Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC).

Why This Matters for Crypto Investors

Hayes’ analysis offers a macro-focused perspective that goes beyond typical technical analysis. By linking Bitcoin’s price trajectory to global fiscal and monetary trends, he provides a framework for understanding potential long-term drivers. However, investors should note that such forecasts are inherently speculative and subject to rapid change based on regulatory developments, geopolitical events, or shifts in market sentiment.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes’ latest commentary reinforces a bullish narrative centered on macroeconomic credit expansion and declining trust in fiat systems. While his price targets are ambitious, the underlying argument about AI-driven capex and government spending is grounded in observable trends. Readers should weigh these factors alongside broader market risks before making investment decisions.

FAQs

Q1: Why does Arthur Hayes believe the Bitcoin bull market started in February?
Hayes argues that late February marked the beginning of a fiat credit expansion driven by AI infrastructure spending, rising war costs, and supply chain investments, which he says benefits Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset.

Q2: What is Arthur Hayes’ price target for Bitcoin?
He believes Bitcoin will surpass $126,000 and that a break above $90,000 would further accelerate the rally.

Q3: Which altcoins is Arthur Hayes most optimistic about?
Hayes has expressed positive views on Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and NEAR Protocol (NEAR), with NEAR being his current top pick.

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