Here’s why total crypto users could reach 4B by 2030 according to Raoul Pal
The number of crypto users across the globe could hit as high as 4 billion within the next six years, according to Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager and outspoken crypto advocate.
Pal’s latest speculation came over the weekend via a Sunday X thread, where he considered a dataset comprising the growth of crypto wallets against the adoption curve of internet IP addresses.
According to Pal, the total crypto user base has grown by an average of 137% annually over the past nine years, reaching nearly 659 million users by the end of 2024.
By comparison, internet adoption in its early years was slower, with about 187 million users by the end of 2000 at an annual growth rate of 76%.
Pal estimated that crypto adoption will moderate to around 43% growth this year, and based on that rate, it would bring the industry’s user count closer to the one-billion mark before 2030.
Pal went further to argue that the long-term trajectory points toward four billion users, which would account for roughly one-eighth of the world’s population.
This growth, he believes, would be supported by a confluence of adoption trends and macroeconomic forces.
Among his key arguments were widespread currency debasement, which he believes will continue to push individuals and institutions toward crypto as a hedge.
“Debasement explains 90% of price action (adoption explains 100% of outperformance vs debasement),” Pal wrote on X.
Pal also floated that if adoption tracks anywhere near his projections, crypto’s market capitalization could cross the $100 trillion threshold within the next decade, potentially as early as 2032.
At press time, the total crypto market capitalisation was $3.88 trillion, and so far, the industry has managed to surpass the $4 trillion market on multiple occasions over the past month.
Skepticism from the community
Although Pal’s estimations were grounded in facts, not everyone in the community agreed and argued that wallets are an unreliable yardstick for adoption.
One commenter pointed out that project founders can create “10,000 wallets and spread coins” to simulate a vibrant community, which, if considered at a scale, could grossly exaggerate adoption figures.
Another user joined in, saying that they personally generate a new wallet every few months for security reasons, meaning the same individual could easily appear as multiple “new users” in the data.
Pal, however, dismissed the concerns as overstated, arguing that early internet adoption metrics suffered from similar distortions, since households and businesses often held multiple IP addresses.
According to a report from Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto division published last year, only 30 million to 60 million people interact meaningfully with crypto each month, which is a far cry from the hundreds of millions of wallets in existence.
Security concerns remain one of the biggest hurdles
Even as debates swirl over adoption metrics, one major hurdle that could limit widespread adoption is user security.
Since its inception, the cryptocurrency sector has been plagued by security threats spanning hacks, exploits, and scams that have cost investors billions of dollars.
This year alone, the industry has been shaken by major security incidents across platforms like Bybit, Nobitex, and Phemex, among others.
For newcomers, these high-profile incidents reinforce fears that the industry lacks the safeguards of traditional finance.
A survey conducted by Ramp Network earlier this year found that nearly half of the respondents pointed to “security concerns” as the biggest frustration when attempting to interact with the crypto space.
The post Here’s why total crypto users could reach 4B by 2030 according to Raoul Pal appeared first on Invezz
Here’s why total crypto users could reach 4B by 2030 according to Raoul Pal
The number of crypto users across the globe could hit as high as 4 billion within the next six years, according to Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager and outspoken crypto advocate.
Pal’s latest speculation came over the weekend via a Sunday X thread, where he considered a dataset comprising the growth of crypto wallets against the adoption curve of internet IP addresses.
According to Pal, the total crypto user base has grown by an average of 137% annually over the past nine years, reaching nearly 659 million users by the end of 2024.
By comparison, internet adoption in its early years was slower, with about 187 million users by the end of 2000 at an annual growth rate of 76%.
Pal estimated that crypto adoption will moderate to around 43% growth this year, and based on that rate, it would bring the industry’s user count closer to the one-billion mark before 2030.
Pal went further to argue that the long-term trajectory points toward four billion users, which would account for roughly one-eighth of the world’s population.
This growth, he believes, would be supported by a confluence of adoption trends and macroeconomic forces.
Among his key arguments were widespread currency debasement, which he believes will continue to push individuals and institutions toward crypto as a hedge.
“Debasement explains 90% of price action (adoption explains 100% of outperformance vs debasement),” Pal wrote on X.
Pal also floated that if adoption tracks anywhere near his projections, crypto’s market capitalization could cross the $100 trillion threshold within the next decade, potentially as early as 2032.
At press time, the total crypto market capitalisation was $3.88 trillion, and so far, the industry has managed to surpass the $4 trillion market on multiple occasions over the past month.
Skepticism from the community
Although Pal’s estimations were grounded in facts, not everyone in the community agreed and argued that wallets are an unreliable yardstick for adoption.
One commenter pointed out that project founders can create “10,000 wallets and spread coins” to simulate a vibrant community, which, if considered at a scale, could grossly exaggerate adoption figures.
Another user joined in, saying that they personally generate a new wallet every few months for security reasons, meaning the same individual could easily appear as multiple “new users” in the data.
Pal, however, dismissed the concerns as overstated, arguing that early internet adoption metrics suffered from similar distortions, since households and businesses often held multiple IP addresses.
According to a report from Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto division published last year, only 30 million to 60 million people interact meaningfully with crypto each month, which is a far cry from the hundreds of millions of wallets in existence.
Security concerns remain one of the biggest hurdles
Even as debates swirl over adoption metrics, one major hurdle that could limit widespread adoption is user security.
Since its inception, the cryptocurrency sector has been plagued by security threats spanning hacks, exploits, and scams that have cost investors billions of dollars.
This year alone, the industry has been shaken by major security incidents across platforms like Bybit, Nobitex, and Phemex, among others.
For newcomers, these high-profile incidents reinforce fears that the industry lacks the safeguards of traditional finance.
A survey conducted by Ramp Network earlier this year found that nearly half of the respondents pointed to “security concerns” as the biggest frustration when attempting to interact with the crypto space.
The post Here’s why total crypto users could reach 4B by 2030 according to Raoul Pal appeared first on Invezz