Strategy Didn’t Cause Bitcoin’s Fall, Weak Demand Drags BTC Lower: Analyst
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Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin's recent decline reflects weak demand and tightening global liquidity rather than MicroStrategy's purchases, noting long-term holder selling peaked in Q3 last year and his risk model flagged a 30% to 40% correction. He warns rising US government debt and competing capital demands including AI share buybacks and private-market fundraising are constraining liquidity but expects new money could return this year or next and highlights tokenization and AI agents as potential drivers of crypto adoption across DeFi, DEX/CEX flows, token launches and blockchain services.
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Many investors have blamed Michael Saylor and Strategy for Bitcoin’s decline, but Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, argues that the data points elsewhere.
Speaking on Michaël van de Poppe’s podcast, Coutts said Bitcoin’s reversal was driven by weak demand and tightening global liquidity rather than the actions of a single company. In his view, liquidity remains the main force shaping prices across Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Why Strategy May Not Be Behind Bitcoin’s DeclineVan de Poppe highlighted Coutts’ argument that Strategy did not cause Bitcoin’s market peak or subsequent decline.
Saylor’s company is often blamed because of its large Bitcoin holdings and debt-funded purchases. However, Coutts said the broader market simply lacked enough buyers to sustain higher prices.
<iframe width=”560” height=”315” src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/kmkm9jbaEIs?si=lT4JYllb8LLZnn_4” title=”YouTube video player” frameborder=”0” allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share” referrerpolicy=”strict-origin-when-cross-origin” allowfullscreen></iframe>He also pointed to long-term holder activity. Selling from this group reportedly peaked during the third quarter of last year, a pattern often associated with the later stages of a market cycle.
Coutts acknowledged that his own risk model had signaled a possible peak earlier than expected. At the time, he interpreted it as a warning of a 30% to 40% correction. In hindsight, he believes the signal may have marked the top of the entire cycle.
Global Liquidity Remains the Bigger Market RiskCoutts linked the decline in liquidity to several forces competing for capital.
AI companies have reduced share buybacks and increased borrowing, while major private-market fundraising and heavy US government debt issuance have absorbed additional liquidity.
He identified rising US government debt as the largest structural concern. In his view, debt is expanding faster than available liquidity, creating an imbalance that will eventually require a policy response.
Coutts expects new money to return to financial markets either this year or next. However, he warned that conditions could deteriorate further before liquidity begins improving.
Tokenization and AI Agents Could Drive the Next Cycle
Looking ahead, Coutts identified tokenization and AI agents as two possible sources of new crypto demand.
Tokenized assets could bring more traditional financial activity on-chain, while autonomous AI agents may create demand for digital payments, decentralized infrastructure and blockchain-based services.
A combination of limited asset supply and genuine new demand would represent a different setup from earlier crypto cycles, which were often driven mainly by speculation.
The discussion also covered altcoins and privacy-focused assets, including the NEAR protocol, cross-chain compatibility, Zcash and the broader role of privacy coins.
Coutts’ central argument remains that Bitcoin’s weakness reflects a shortage of liquidity and demand rather than the influence of Strategy alone. A lasting recovery, therefore, may depend less on one corporate buyer and more on when global liquidity begins expanding again.
