Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Value Depends on Money Supply, Not Interest Rates

Apr 16, 2026

< 1 min read

by Coin Edition

for CoinEdition

Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Value Depends on Money Supply, Not Interest Rates

AI Overview

Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co‑founder) says long‑term Bitcoin value is driven by money supply/money printing, not interest rates; he remained in a 'no‑trade zone' in Q1 2026, only slowly adding to a Hyperliquid position. Hayes sees three Iran‑war scenarios leading to central bank money printing that would benefit Bitcoin, and uses the MOVE Index crossing 130 as his signal that money printing has begun. Market implication: thesis is bullish for crypto adoption and Bitcoin price if money printing occurs, but near‑term impact is limited until the MOVE>130 trigger appears.

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Hayes says the quantity of money, not interest rates, determines Bitcoin price long-term.
Three Iran war scenarios all end with central bank money printing benefiting Bitcoin.
Hayes watches the MOVE Index crossing 130 as his signal that money printing has begun.

Arthur Hayes has barely traded this year. The BitMEX co-founder described the first quarter of 2026 as a “no-trade zone,” with his fund doing almost nothing beyond slowly building its Hyperliquid position.

The reason behind it is a specific conviction about what drives Bitcoin’s price and a view that the current environment has not yet produced the signal he is waiting for.

That signal is money printing. “I believe the quantity of money determines the price of Bitcoin, not its price. Bitcoin has no cash flows, so the discount rate derived from central bank policy rates is irrelevant to valuing the magic…

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