Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund CEO Nicolai Tangen warned at an Arendal conference that the fund could theoretically be wiped out, noting stocks comprised 71.3% of the portfolio at end‑2025 and NBIM stress tests show a ‘fragmented world’ scenario could erase about 37% (~$740 billion). He also flagged indirect crypto exposure via equity stakes with Bitcoin holdings that jumped 83% to mid‑2025, highlighting correlation and downside risk for crypto and other risk assets as Bitcoin trades near $63,277 and the fund posted a -1.9% return in Q1 2026.

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In Brief

The world's largest wealth fund just admitted its $2 trillion could go to zero.
Nicolai Tangen called markets 'abnormal' and pointed to pre-1929 parallels.
The fund holds indirect Bitcoin exposure through its equity portfolio.

Norway’s $2 trillion wealth fund could one day be worth nothing. The warning came from Nicolai Tangen, the fund’s own CEO, on Tuesday.

Tangen spoke at a political conference in Arendal, southern Norway. Markets keep climbing despite mounting risks, he said, and called that abnormal.

Norway Wealth Fund CEO Puts a Total Wipeout on the Table

The fund is Norway’s national nest egg, long seen as one of the safest pools of money in global markets. It invests the country’s oil and gas income in stocks, bonds, and property abroad.

On average, it owns 1.5% of every listed company on Earth, according to Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which runs it.

The fund crossed $1 trillion in 2017, a milestone driven by rising global stock markets and the strengthening of major currencies against the US dollar.

It has doubled since, now covering about a quarter of Norway’s public spending, up from roughly 10% a decade ago.

Market value of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Source: Reuters

Tangen ran a London hedge fund, AKO Capital, before taking charge in 2020. He knows how fortunes vanish. He framed Tuesday’s scenario as preparation, not prediction. Still, he refused to soften the answer.

“I want to contribute to our mental emergency preparedness by asking the question: ‘can the oil fund disappear?’ The answer to that question is ‘yes’ and the worst is that in the world we live in now, it is not completely improbable,” Tangen said in remarks reported by Reuters.

Echoes of 1929 While Markets Price In Nothing But Good News

The fund’s own numbers explain the unease. Stocks made up 71.3% of it at the end of 2025, per its annual report. It gained 15.1% that year.

However, the first quarter of 2026 was in the red. Falling US tech giants dragged it down 1.9%, the fund said in its first-quarter update.

NBIM’s own stress tests add teeth. Its latest annual report models a “fragmented world” of tariffs and rival trade blocs. That scenario alone erases 37% of the fund’s value, roughly $740 billion. An AI correction sits on the same list.

History supplies the darker math. Tangen pointed to the run-up to the 1929 crash, including tariffs. US stocks lost nearly 90% between 1929 and 1932. In contrast, the fund’s roughest recent year, 2022, cost it just 14.1%.

The timing gives the warning its bite. It landed the same day Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index dealt retail traders their worst crash since 2008. A day earlier, data showed hedging demand collapsing even as banks raised S&P 500 targets.

Meanwhile, a growing chorus calls AI concentration the biggest market risk.

Still, Tangen conceded the bulls have a point. Companies rebuilt supply chains. Moreover, the economy keeps absorbing shocks that once would have broken it.

“If you were going back two years, if you had predicted tariffs, trade barriers, you would not have expected the market and the economy to be as strong as it is. So it is a resilient economy.”

Should Bitcoin Investors Worry?

The fund does not buy Bitcoin directly. However, it holds indirect exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) through equity stakes in companies that hold BTC on their balance sheets. That stake jumped 83% from the year to mid-2025.

The channel matters in a crash. Bitcoin trades near $63,277, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours. In broad selloffs, it has tended to fall alongside the same tech stocks that dragged the fund down in the first quarter.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

So the honest answer is no, not because of one speech. Tangen predicted nothing. The worry case is the setup he described. Stretched valuations, tariffs, and complacency threaten every risk asset, and Bitcoin sits high on that list.

The tension in his message is the real story. The steward of the world’s largest fortune is war-gaming a total loss while markets sit near record highs.

Read the article at BeInCrypto