The US July nonfarm payrolls report is due today with economists forecasting 83,000 jobs while Vanguard's 401(k) data suggests just 18,000, a miss that could revive rate-cut bets and support crypto risk assets. June's surprise 57,000 print briefly sent Bitcoin up 4% before hawkish Fed comments and rising Treasury yields erased gains; Bitcoin traded near $64,305 (+0.5%) as traders across crypto, DeFi, DEX and CEX markets await whether the Fed frames the data as easing or tightening.

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In Brief

Wall Street expects 83,000 new July jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
Bitcoin jumped 4% after June's jobs miss, then reversed within weeks.
Vanguard sees just 18,000 July jobs, a miss that could revive rate cuts.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July’s nonfarm payrolls report today, with economists forecasting a gain of just 83,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%. Bitcoin (BTC) traders are wondering whether the reaction will mirror June’s report.

June’s report showed just 57,000 new jobs, a miss that sent Bitcoin jumping 4% before the rally faded within weeks. That pattern is worth noting ahead of today’s print.

What Happened Last Time

June’s payrolls came in far below the roughly 110,000 economists had forecast. Weak hiring data typically revives bets that the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate hikes, since lower rates ease liquidity conditions that support Bitcoin.

That played out almost immediately. Bitcoin jumped 4% to near $62,000 the day the June report landed, then climbed toward $64,000 over the following weekend as traders priced out a near-term hike.

The rally did not hold. Bitcoin slipped roughly 3% by the end of July, trading near $63,080, after three Fed policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike at their latest meeting. Thirty-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007 that same week.

A Pattern That Cuts Both Ways

June was not an isolated case. A stronger-than-expected May jobs report weakened rate cut hopes and pressured Bitcoin, as the economy added 172,000 jobs against lower forecasts.

Bitcoin has been up and down this month, but in a tight range, awaiting some catalyst. Image Source: BeInCrypto

A January report that nearly doubled expectations produced the same effect, pushing Bitcoin toward $65,000 support as Treasury yields rose. An unusually weak August 2025 report, just 22,000 jobs against forecasts of 75,000, sent Bitcoin near $113,000 on revived rate cut bets.

Why Today Could Break The Pattern

Forecasts for July diverge sharply. Vanguard’s 401(k) data points to a payroll gain of just 18,000, a miss that would likely echo June’s rally. Citigroup holds an out-of-consensus call for three rate cuts between now and January 2027.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook struck a more cautious tone this week.

“Although the hiring rate is low, the unemployment rate remains steady because layoffs are also low. The low-hire, low-fire equilibrium hits some groups, including new entrants, especially hard and may restrain worker sentiment for good reason.”

Cook added that she would support a rate hike if inflation fails to improve, the same hawkish undertone that cut short June’s rally within weeks.

Bitcoin traded at $64,305 at time of writing, up 0.50% over 24 hours. Whether today’s print triggers a repeat of June’s move, or gets overtaken by the same hawkish signals that followed it, may depend on how the Fed frames the data as much as the headline number itself.

Read the article at BeInCrypto