Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz anticipates a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January 10

Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, said on Dec. 19 that he expects a spot Bitcoin ETF to be approved in the coming weeks.

In an interview with CNBC, Novogratz said:

“We’re going to get this ETF before Jan. 10. That’s kind of the drop dead date that Gensler has before he gets in trouble with Grayscale and the lawsuit, and so I think you’re going to see this announced. It wouldn’t start trading then, it probably takes six to eight weeks after that.”

He suggested that the approval could benefit markets, calling an approval “more fuel for a fire” and stating that crypto stocks are trading “like a maniac.”

Novogratz suggested that the deadline is related to a ruling that compels the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to review Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. However, contrary to that suggestion, the Jan. 10 date, in fact, concerns an unrelated application from Ark Invest and 21Shares. Ark submitted one of the first still-pending spot Bitcoin ETFs, meaning that the SEC must approve or reject the application in January with no possibility of further delays.

Though the SEC may ultimately reject Ark’s application, meetings between the SEC and numerous applicants, plus numerous filing amendments, suggest that an approval is likely. Similarities between Ark Invest’s application and others, including BlackRock’s, mean that the SEC could approve multiple ETFs at once.

Others have endorsed the January deadline

Members of another firm, K33 Research, have also expressed expectations of an early January spot Bitcoin ETF approval. In a Dec. 18 report, K33 Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde and Vice President Anders Helseth wrote that recent updates to applicants’ ETF filings are a sign that approval is likely in the “next three weeks.” They otherwise described the approval date as “nailed on.”

The Jan. 10 deadline appears to have originated from Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart. In October, the two Bloomberg analysts predicted a 90% chance of approval by that date.

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