Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to about $76,762 (+2% 24h) after reports of a potential US‑Iran agreement, but the underlying crypto price structure signals caution for investors. Technical analysis shows BTC trading inside an ascending channel with a likely short-term retracement to around $72,500 and a break below that could open the way to $60,000, while resistance near $86,000 aligns with the 365‑day moving average and traders say they will only consider new longs above that MA.

Bearish

Predictions Markets

See what traders are focused on

View analytics →

After a terrible start to the weekend, the Bitcoin price jumped back to life on the back of news of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran. However, ignoring the potential impact of fresh geopolitical news or events, the current price structure suggests that new investors would be catching a falling knife. According to a chart highlighted on the X platform, the Bitcoin price appears bound for a drop to around $72,000, at least in the short term.

BTC Price Trading In Ascending Channel Pattern

Prominent chartist Aksel Kibar took to the social media platform X to share an interesting layout of the Bitcoin price, suggesting the coin might be on its way down to around $72,500. This highlighted chart shows the formation of an ascending channel on the BTC daily timeframe over the past few months.

For context, an ascending channel is a technical analysis pattern characterized by two major (upward-sloping) trendlines: the upper line connecting the higher highs and the lower line connecting the higher lows. Within this framework, the upper boundary acts as resistance while the lower trendline provides a support cushion to the asset’s price (i.e., Bitcoin price).

Typically, an ascending channel shows the persistence of an upward trend, with the Bitcoin price forming multiple higher highs and higher lows since February. However, the premier cryptocurrency recently formed a swing high around $82,500 and is currently undergoing a retracement that could see its value fall to as low as $72,500.

What to watch is what happens at the lower boundary if the Bitcoin price does fall to $72,500 over the next few days. On an optimistic note, the flagship cryptocurrency could bounce back and forge back towards the upper trendline if this highlighted support level holds strong.

In this case, the resistance region to watch would be just above $86,000, where there would likely be a confluence of the 365-day moving average and the upper boundary line. The market leader could enjoy further significant upside if the Bitcoin price breaks above this resistance region.

However, there is also a chance that the BTC price could lose the $72,500 support, which could trigger a wave of bearish pressure. If this scenario plays out, the premier cryptocurrency could fall as low as $60,000, where Kibar thinks a short-term reversal could form.

In any case, Kibar noted that he would only consider entering a long position above the 365-day moving average, a major indicator of the start of a bull market.