Top Analyst Warns Bitcoin Risks Retracement To $40,000 As Highly Reliable Indicator Flashes Sell Signal

Independent crypto analyst Ali Martinez cautioned of a potential downside for Bitcoin after spotting a bearish signal from a reliable technical indicator.

In a recent post on the X platform, Martinez told his followers that the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator, which has predicted every major Bitcoin crash, had flashed again. The indicator, according to Martinez, was warning that a 63% reversal could be in the offing.

“The Tom DeMark Sequential just gave a quarterly sell signal. This is a rare warning that has historically preceded brutal drawdowns,” the pundit stated.

Martinez noted that the TD Sequential sent a sell signal in 2015, and a 75% Bitcoin drop ensued. In 2018, the same setup saw Bitcoin plummet by over 85%.

The TD Sequential indicator is an oscillating trend-following chart overlay indicator that is used to identify short-term trend reversals based on changes in intraday highs and lows. In other words, the indicator sparks when an asset sees an overextended rally and is due for a brutal correction.

In this case, the indicator predicts that the BTC price could see a frantic drop from the current level, dropping as much as 63%, to trade hands at around $40,000. Such a move would mark a huge drawdown as Bitcoin has been trading above the psychologically important $100K level for the most part in recent months.

Today, BTC topped the $110,000 mark for the first time since June 11 after U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew in roughly $408 million on Wednesday — a sign of investors’ unwavering confidence. Since May 1, these BTC products have registered $9.91 billion in inflows, approximately 20% of their total inflows since launching in January 2024, data from Farside shows.

The world’s largest and oldest crypto was valued at $110,295 as of publication time, a more than 2.4% gain since Wednesday.