Bitcoin’s 54% Drawdown Revives $38K Bottom Scenario: NYDIG
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Bitcoin is down 54.3% from its $126K peak with the drawdown stretched to 268 days, and NYDIG models a potential cycle low of $38K-$39K in early October. Bitcoin fell 32.9% in H1 2026 while tech equities gained 43.5%, highlighting a sharp crypto-equity divergence and market impact. NYDIG compares the current pattern to the 2014, 2018 and 2022 cycle resets, noting failed recoveries and prior bear markets of 363 and 376 days, underscoring continued downside risk for crypto prices.
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- Bitcoin is down 54.3% from its $126K peak, with the current drawdown at 268 days.
- NYDIG models a $38K to $39K potential cycle low for early October as a scenario.
- Bitcoin fell 32.9% in H1 2026 while tech equities gained 43.5% over the same period.
Bitcoin is down 54.3% from its all-time high, the drawdown has stretched to 268 days, and a new quarterly report from NYDIG has raised the question: could this cycle produce one more leg down before the bottom is in?
Pattern That Keeps Repeating
NYDIG’s analysis places the current drawdown alongside the three prior major cycle resets of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Each one followed a broadly similar structure. Bitcoin peaked, corrected sharply, attempted a recovery that failed to hold, and then made a final lower low before the next cycle began.
The two most recent bear markets lasted 363 and 376 days respectively and rea…
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