Bitcoin Holders Show Record Conviction as Prediction Markets Price in a Calm June

• Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 61% chance of hitting $115K in June, with minimal bets on a $150K breakout.
• Whales on Binance are showing rare patience, holding BTC despite near-record prices and declining inflows.
• On-chain data reveals strong demand at $101K support, while volatility may be underpriced by options markets.

While prediction markets are betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders who are refusing to sell, signaling a powerful bullish undercurrent for the BTC market. 

As Bitcoin hovers near its all-time high, this disconnect between short-term expectations and long-term holder behavior is becoming a key focus for analysts. Data from prediction platform Polymarket reveals that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin’s price by the end of June is $115,000, with a 61% probability. 

Traders are pricing this level as the most probable outcome, reflecting confidence that BTC will maintain its current strength without an immediate breakout. Here’s a breakdown of the odds:

• $115K: 61% chance (Buy Yes at 61¢)
• $120K: 29% chance (Buy Yes at 29¢)
• $100K:…

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