Bitcoin Has a 40% Shot at $100K by End of 2026, Prediction Markets Say
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Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) price ~40% probability Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by end of 2026 and ~7% chance before June 2026, reflecting bullish long-term odds. An institutional strategy bought ~$2.54B for ~34,000 BTC last week and nearly $10B of BTC year-to-date, signaling large-scale institutional buying and funding-driven demand. Technical outlook: Bitcoin support around $73,000 with $80,000 as the key resistance level to unlock a move toward $100,000; relevant for crypto price outlook, adoption and market risk.
Predictions Markets
See what traders are focused on
- Kalshi gives Bitcoin 40% odds of reclaiming $100K by the end of 2026, just 7% before June.
- Strategy spent $2.54B on 34,000 BTC last week, totaling nearly $10B in purchases this year.
- Bitcoin eyes $73K support, with $80K as key level to unlock move toward $100K.
Bitcoin may have taken a beating recently, but traders on prediction platforms aren’t ready to give up on a six-figure comeback. According to Kalshi, one of the leading prediction markets, there is currently a 40% probability that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark before the end of 2026. The odds are much lower in the near term, with only a 7% chance of it happening before June. Polymarket is telling a similar story, also pricing the likelihood at around 39% for the year.
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