On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. (May 2) using an Adjusted Realized Price Bands model (CryptoQuant) shows the RP Alive lower bound under $59,000, suggesting Bitcoin may still have one more leg down before a true bottom forms. - Bottom formation estimated to take about six months and depends on a sustained return of genuine spot demand; current on-chain indicators show weak demand, posing medium-term downside risk for BTC. - BTC trading around $78,458 (~+2% weekly); key crypto on-chain metrics and adoption-driven demand will determine timing of recovery and market impact.

Bearish

Predictions Markets

See what traders are focused on

View analytics →

After weeks of renewed optimism, many in the Bitcoin market now believe the tide could finally be turning. While the premier cryptocurrency’s price action has been steadily turning around since the start of April, the current on-chain structure suggests expectations might be overestimated. According to an on-chain analyst, BTC’s recovery process is unlikely to occur in a few weeks.

Bitcoin Bottom Could Take Six Months To Form: Analyst

In a May 2nd post on the X platform, crypto pundit Axel Adler Jr. shared an on-chain insight into the recovery path of Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. This on-chain observation is based on an adjusted model of the Realized Price Bands metric that reflects the average cost basis of different market participants.

The Adjusted Realized Price Bands model is calibrated to only account for Bitcoin’s live circulating supply, filtering the effect of the dormant — albeit significant — portion of the coin’s total supply. This metric shows when significant holders, who are likely to make market decisions, are at a loss or near a loss, signaling historical accumulation zones.

Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Adler Jr. revealed that the lower bound of the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, known as the “RP Alive,” is now below $59,000. According to the on-chain analyst, this price zone could mark the start of a Bitcoin bottom formation, suggesting the market leader might still have one more leg down.

Adler Jr., however, noted that Bitcoin’s price being near the bottom doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, as bottom formation isn’t a “one or two week process.” The analyst postulated that the base case for the bottom formation is around six months.

BTC Bottom Formation Depends On Return Of Market Demand

Adler Jr. further explained the rationale for the six-month base case conclusion, noting that demand remains the core driver of bottom formations. The on-chain analyst then mentioned that real demand forms only over the long term, not on emotion or local bounces.

In essence, the on-chain analyst believes the bottom formation will only begin when the investors start to “see forward-looking value again,” and genuine spot demand returns to the market. Unfortunately, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s apparent demand remains weak.

As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,458, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up nearly 2% on the weekly timeframe.