Analyst Killa, who previously predicted a June 2025 cycle top (~$121,362 vs actual $126,100 ATH in Oct 2025), now uses the same market-cycle multiple model to project a Bitcoin bottom of $38,800 (base) and upside scenarios of $40,740–$42,680 — implying ~45–50% downside from current ~$78,015. The model notes declining high-to-bottom multiples across five cycles (15.50x → 7.64x → 6.26x → 4.47x), applies a 3.25x multiple to the $126,100 top, and signals continued crypto market-cycle contraction and correction risk. Independent Elliott Wave analysis (CryptoBullet) corroborates a corrective Wave Y to ~$45k–$50k and anticipates the bear phase extending into H2 2026, highlighting downside risk for Bitcoin price and market sentiment.

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Bitcoin has spent April staging a recovery from its March lows, briefly climbing back above $79,000. However, not everyone is convinced of the rebound, and some analysts believe the move is only a mid-bear-market rally before a deeper correction.

One such analyst is one that previously predicted a coming peak in July 2025. Now, the same analyst is predicting how far the Bitcoin price still has to fall before it puts in a true bottom.

Analyst Uses Previous Top Model To Predict Bitcoin Bottom

Crypto analyst Killa made a cycle-top prediction of $121,362 back in June 2025. This call was made months before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and it was off by only about 3.9%. Now, using the same analytical framework that generated that call, Killa has turned the model toward the downside.

The principle behind the projection is that each successive Bitcoin market cycle produces a smaller multiple relative to the prior cycle’s bottom, reflecting the maturation of the asset. His data across five cycles shows the high-to-bottom multiple declining from 15.50x in the first cycle to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and then 4.47x in Cycle 4, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 before bottoming at $15,600.

Applying the same rate of reduction, Killa projects the current cycle’s multiple at 3.25x, dividing the $126,100 cycle top to arrive at a base bottom target of $38,800.

To account for the 5% variance that offset his top prediction, he added in two upside scenarios of $40,740 and $42,680. Even at the top of that range, Bitcoin would still be well below the $60,000 level that some market participants have cited as the correction bottom.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @KillaXBT On X

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,015, meaning a move to $42,680 would still require a drop of about 45%, while a further drop to $38,800 would be close to a 50% correction from current prices.

Three Years Up, One Year Down

Killa’s bottom projection finds support from a separate analysis by analyst CryptoBullet, who approached the question of a bottom from a symmetry standpoint.

CryptoBullet’s weekly Bitcoin chart characterized the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave advance beginning in late 2022, with Wave 5 completing around the $126,000 high in October 2025. The subsequent correction, labeled as a W-X-Y corrective structure in blue, projects a final Wave Y leg down below $50,000 to $45,000.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart. Source: @CryptoBullet1 On X

According to the analyst, three years of upward price action from the November 2022 bottom through the 2025 peak cannot reasonably be corrected in less than a year of decline. The current bear phase is shown extending into the second half of 2026 before the bottom structure can be completed.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Read the article at NewsBTC