Ethereum Signals Bullish Reversal via Key MVRV Metric
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Ethereum's daily MVRV has crossed above its 160-day SMA (a Golden Cross), signaling a potential end to capitulation and a bullish reversal; previous Golden Crosses preceded ETH rallies of 50%, 166%, 74% and 113%. Institutional and whale demand is backing the move with three straight weeks of spot ETH ETF inflows (week: $103.9M; July total: $337.74M), Bitmine buying over 9,900 ETH, mid-tier whale wallets rising from 4,750 to 4,850, mega-whales holding 17.41M ETH (~22% of supply), staking rising from 63 billion to 77 billion, ETH/BTC strength and ETH trading at $1,939 after wiping >$100M in short liquidations. Bulls need to defend the $1,850–$1,900 demand zone and reclaim the 200-day MA at $2,134 to target $2,300, while near-term risks include the Fed rate decision, the CLARITY Act vote on August 3 and Middle East geopolitical tensions, making this development broadly bullish for crypto adoption, ETFs, staking and price momentum.
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The daily Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Ethereum (ETH) has decisively crossed above its 160-day Simple Moving Average. Known as a Golden Cross, the move signals the end of ETH’s capitulation phase, and the beginning of a bullish reversal.
Source: X
Ethereum Golden Cross and bullish supporters
In the past three years, a Golden Cross preceded major ETH recoveries as the accumulation regime overpowered distribution. This was seen in early 2023, late 2023-Q1 2024, Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 where the price of ETH surged by 50%, 166%, 74% and 113% respectively.
Data also reveals renewed institutional engagements, with the past week marking the third consecutive week of spot Ethereum ETFs inflows. That week brought in $103.9 million, bringing July’s total net inflows to $337.74 million.
In the same week, Bitmine, the largest public Ethereum treasury firm, purchased over 9,900 ETH. This contributed to the coin’s 27% hike in the past month.
Even more, whales have been aggressively accumulating the digital asset since June. Wallets of mid-tier whales (holding 1,000 – 10,000 ETH) increased from 4,750 in June to 4,850 by late July. Wallets of mega-whales (holding over 100,000 ETH) collectively hold 17.41 million ETH (over 22% of the total circulating supply).
Ethereum buy demand has also been outpacing that of Bitcoin in the past month as shown by the rising ETH/BTC ratio below.
Source: Trading View
Additionally, the amount of ETH staked has risen from 63 billion in July 1, to a present 77 billion, indicating positive sentiment in the network.
Key price support and resistance zones
ETH is up 0.85% in the past 24h, wiping out over $100 million in short liquidations and bringing its current price to $1,939.
To maintain the Golden Cross, bulls need to defend the $1,850 – $1,900 demand zone. Further reclamation of prices above the 200-day MA ($2,134) is necessary to confirm a true macro trend reversal. This would also open the way to the $2,300 resistance zone.
Key events that could impact the near-term price of Ethereum include upcoming Fed rates announcement. Others are the tentative Senate floor vote on the CLARITY Act on August 3 and the Middle East conflict.
