Arthur Hayes says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s stepped-up bond buybacks—doubling operations from $2 billion to $4 billion and potentially tapping the ~$950 billion Treasury General Account—mirror Janet Yellen’s 2023 liquidity playbook and, by applying the 2.84x mid‑2023 to March 2024 Bitcoin rally multiple to today’s ~$78,800 price, implies a $224,000 Bitcoin target. The thesis is bullish for crypto adoption and price if buybacks hold, but Hayes and critics note major caveats: January and April 2024 spot ETF approvals and the halving also drove gains, Citadel warns of dollar weakness and inflation risk, and the outcome depends on whether the buyback impulse sustains.

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In Brief

Arthur Hayes says Bessent's Treasury buybacks mirror Yellen's 2023 liquidity playbook.
Applying that 2023-2024 rally multiple to today's Bitcoin price suggest a new all-time high.
The result: a $224,000 target if history repeats, with some caveats attached.

Arthur Hayes argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is running the same money-printing playbook former Secretary Janet Yellen used in 2023. If the pattern holds, the math points to a six-figure Bitcoin target.

Bessent’s Treasury has already doubled long-term bond buyback operations this month. Hayes says the policy mirrors the liquidity mechanics that fueled Bitcoin’s 2023-2024 rally under Yellen.

Why Hayes Sees a Bessent-Yellen Repeat

Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer, made a similar case in a recent Hayes interview. He argues Bessent faces the same problem Yellen did in 2023. Both face a government that keeps spending. Historically, that has forced a Treasury Secretary to defend the 10-year yield below 5%.

Yellen’s fix was shifting issuance toward short-term bills. The move drained the Fed’s reverse repo facility from $2.5 trillion to about $100 billion. That drawdown ran from mid-2023 to January 2025, when Bessent took over. That cash flowed into bank reserves and, Hayes argues, into Bitcoin’s 2023-2024 rally.

A snap shot of Bitcoin’s price action from the start of 2023 – at around $16,000 – to the end of 2024 where it tipped over $100,000. Image Source: CoinGecko

Bessent’s version of the same trade is already underway. The Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation this month. Officials are also weighing whether to tap the roughly $950 billion Treasury General Account (TGA) to fund even larger purchases.

The move briefly pushed Bitcoin to $80,000 before it slipped back near $78,800. That mirrors how quickly the bond market clawed back August’s earlier buyback rally.

The Bitcoin Math Behind the $224,000 Target

Applying Hayes’ 2023 comparison literally produces a specific target. Bitcoin traded near $26,000 in mid-2023, when Yellen’s bill-heavy issuance began draining the reverse repo facility. It peaked near $73,750 in March 2024, before the halving and spot ETF approvals added their own momentum. That’s a 2.84x move.

Applying the same multiple to Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $78,800 produces a target near $224,000. That figure is a simple calculation based on Hayes’ framework, not a number Hayes stated himself.

But, the number does carry some caveats. The 2023-2024 rally wasn’t driven by reverse repo drainage alone. Spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024 and April 2024’s halving both landed in the same window. Each moved price independently of Treasury issuance mechanics. However, implicit money printing has always been a big catalyst for Bitcoin growth

Citadel Securities has also pushed back on Bessent’s buyback strategy. The firm warns the approach resembles financial repression that could weaken the dollar and stoke inflation.

Whether Bitcoin gets anywhere near that math depends on one thing.

Can Bessent’s buybacks hold up better than August’s first attempt did? Or will they fade the way the bond market rally already has twice this month?

Read the article at BeInCrypto