Benjamin Cowen: Crypto Hasn’t Been This Cheap Since 2010, But It Might Drop Lower

Crypto has not been this cheap relative to its long-term trend since 2010, according to Benjamin Cowen. Still, the Into The Cryptoverse founder warns that the bottom is not in yet.

Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto’s Markets Intelligence Council, expects one more leg down in the third quarter. He points to midterm-year seasonality and rising bond yields as the likely triggers.

Crypto is 62% Below Fair Value, the Cheapest Since 2010

In two new videos, Cowen measured the total crypto market cap against his logarithmic regression trendline. The gap has never been wider in the asset class’s tradable history.

The total market cap stood at $2.152 trillion on July 31. Meanwhile, the model’s fair value sat at $5.737 trillion, leaving crypto 62.49% undervalued.

Valuation vs Trendline. Source: YouTube

The market now trades at 37.52% of fair value. The only lower reading came on September 20, 2010, at 32.72%.

“We have been lower before all the way back when crypto first launched. Actually, it was the only time that it’s been lower than it is right now,” Cowen said.

Crypto Market Cap and Trendline. Source: YouTube

Because fair value keeps rising over time, Cowen argued the discount could deepen even if prices move sideways. Recent Coldcard hacks and fading retail interest add to the pressure, he noted.

Bitcoin’s Window of Weakness Opens Within Weeks

The undervaluation signal clashes with seasonality. Bitcoin (BTC) gained 10.42% in July, and Cowen sees the relief rally ending soon.

“If history is any indication, the next window of weakness… is going to start sometime in the next two to three weeks,” he warned.

BTC Monthly Returns Table. Source: YouTube

The pattern is consistent across midterm years. August and September turned red in 2014, 2018, and 2022, and they remain the only months with negative average returns. Historically, weakness arrived in early August 2018 and mid-August 2022.

BTC trades near $62,648, down 45% over the past year and 27% year-to-date. It’s 2026 path tracks between the 2018 and 2022 trajectories, which both rolled over in August. On-chain models point to a similar final bear leg.

BTC Year-To-Date ROI. Source: YouTube

Cowen also flagged a macro trigger. A similar yield move preceded Bitcoin’s decline from July 2023, and the Fed faces its most divided decision in years.

“The bond market is starting to revolt. The Fed’s not raising rates,” he said.

Benjamin Cowen Sees Crypto Bottom Near November

Despite the near-term caution, Cowen’s cycle framework suggests the end is close. Measured low to low, this bear market would match prior ones in just a few months.

“I’m hoping that by around November or so, we’ll be either at a market cycle bottom already or it’ll be relatively close to being in,” he said.

Long-term holder data from Fidelity also approaches past-cycle bottom levels. Rather than timing the exact low, Cowen favors a systematic approach.

“I would encourage people, not financial advice, but normally a DCA strategy is going to work best rather than trying to time the exact bottom,” he added.

Dollar-cost averaging, or DCA, spreads purchases over time to smooth out volatility. Beyond the cycle, Cowen maintained his call that the asset class could eventually reach $10 trillion, plus or minus a few trillion.

However, his thesis carries a clear caveat. If the four-year cycle stretches as it did in 2022, the recovery could slip toward 2027, and the bear market resistance band may stay out of reach until then.

Read the article at BeInCrypto