Bitcoin’s next breakout movement could take 4 more months

Bitcoin’s (BTC) selling pressure is potentially subsiding as traders register 12% in unrealized loss margins, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno.

Moreno added that this could potentially result in BTC getting stuck in a lateralization pattern for up to four months.

He further highlighted that the current level of traders’ unrealized losses usually signals a local bottom for Bitcoin. Previous occurrences were registered between June and October 2023 and June and October 2024 — if the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could fail to register decisive price action until June.

Based on CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading at $82,900 as of press time, down roughly 0.9% over the past 24 hours.

The data highlighted by Moreno comes as Bitcoin holders realized $1.7 billion in losses on Feb. 26, the largest loss realization movement since August 2024.

Potential for further downside

Morena said that despite the traders’ unrealized loss margin suggesting a local bottom, Bitcoin’s metrics are in correction territory.

He noted that the MVRV, a commonly used indicator, is below its 365-day moving average. As a result, it can take more time for BTC to find its footing and start a recovery movement.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju shared that it might take one more month to determine whether Bitcoin will revert to a downtrend movement or if a recovery is possible. He added that it all depends on the increase in the buyers’ demand.

According to Ju:

“Based on the typical two-year cycle, the bull market should last until April 2025 — I mentioned this back in May 2024. The next month or two will be a key turning point for the BTC market. If every indicator confirms a downtrend, I’ll admit I was wrong and post about it.”

However, despite the potential for further downside, Ju is not convinced that BTC could drop below $77,000. In his assessment, the worst-case scenario would be Bitcoin consolidating near $77,000 before resuming an upward movement.

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