Tesla sales miss again as Musk bets future on unproven robots amid Iran threats

Tesla sold more cars in the first three months of this year than in the same period last year. But the numbers still fell short of what Wall Street wanted to see.

The company delivered 358,023 vehicles worldwide between January and March, it said Thursday. That’s a 6% bump from a year ago. It’s also the first time in three years that Tesla posted a first-quarter increase.

Financial analysts weren’t impressed. They expected around 381,000 deliveries, based on FactSet data. Tesla missed by about 6%.

The real problem shows up when you look back further. In early 2023, Tesla was delivering 423,000 vehicles in the first quarter. That’s nearly a fifth more than what just got reported. Back then, Tesla was the world’s biggest electric vehicle maker. However, Chinese competitor BYD took that crown at the end of last year with 2.26 million EVs. Tesla’s number was 1.64 million.

Investors didn’t like the news. Shares dropped 3% to $369 in early trading. The stock is still up 30% from a year ago, but it’s down over 22% from its high point.

Here’s another red flag, Tesla built 408,386 vehicles during the quarter. That’s way more than it sold. The gap between production and actual sales keeps growing.

Budget models fail to boost sales

Tesla isn’t alone in struggling to sell electric vehicles. The whole industry is hitting a wall, especially in the United States.

Big automakers have backed away from their electric vehicle plans. Some have canceled them outright. Newcomers are having trouble too. Rivian reported Thursday morning that it shipped just over 10,000 vehicles in the first quarter. That’s basically the same number it reports every quarter.

Rivian does have a new model coming, the cheaper R2 SUV. The company is counting on it being a huge hit right away. But the cheapest version won’t arrive until late 2027.

Last October, Tesla rolled out cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3. Base prices: $39,990 and $36,990. The company spent over a year talking about making more affordable cars before these finally showed up.

They haven’t made much difference. This weak first quarter means Tesla could see sales decline for three straight years. Profits are falling too. This is the same company that once told investors it would grow sales 50% every year.

The Cybertruck flopped. Tesla only moved 16,130 units in its “other models” category during the quarter. That includes the Cybertruck, plus the Model S and Model X. The metal-covered truck was supposed to be huge. It wasn’t.

CEO Elon Musk scrapped plans for a $25,000 car and bet everything on the CyberCab instead—a self-driving taxi. So now Tesla doesn’t have a new affordable vehicle to offer.

Musk keeps pushing investors to forget about car sales. He wants them focused on a future with self-driving robotaxis and humanoid robots in factories and homes.

Maybe that’s why Tesla’s stock price stays expensive. It trades at 181 times what analysts expect the company to earn, compared to 22 times for the broader market.

Tesla is also on Iran’s target list

Tesla plans to start mass-producing its Optimus robot this summer. Musk says he’ll build 1 million by 2027. He’s also mentioned orbital data centers.

Nobody knows if people will actually buy humanoid robots in those numbers. The tech isn’t proven yet.

Moreover, there’s a geopolitical problem as well. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps put out a warning on Wednesday. Eighteen American tech companies, Tesla included, could become targets because of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The message told workers at Middle East facilities to clear out by 8 p.m. Tehran time.

Earlier this month, Iranian forces already attacked Amazon Web Services facilities in the region. That knocked out digital services across the United Arab Emirates.

Tesla reports full quarterly earnings on April 22. Analysts expect net income of around 25 cents per share on $23 billion in revenue.

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