Analyst Alex Mason warns the crypto market’s Bitcoin rally to $100,000 in 2026 is increasingly unlikely after price weakened below $80,000 and was rejected in early May at the $82,000 CME gap, forming an ascending channel that may be a distribution trap. A breakdown from the channel would target about $70,000 then $60,000 and potentially $50,000 by early July, while reclaiming the 200-day MA near $82,000 and added liquidity would be needed for a $100,000 run; Kalshi currently prices only a 32% probability of a break above $100,000 before January 2027.

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Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 is still a popular target across the market for 2026, but one bearish outlook argues that the move is becoming less realistic with the price action weakening below the $80,000 price level.

This bearish outlook came from a crypto analyst known as Alex Mason on the social media platform X, who predicted that Bitcoin will not hit the $100,000 price level again this year because its price action is in a controlled trap inside an ascending channel.

Bitcoin’s Ascending Channel May Have Been A Trap

Bitcoin has not traded above $100,000 in 2026 and with the calendar now almost in the middle of the year, the time frame for a recovery above six figures is shrinking fast. The price action over the past two months has instead been defined by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin forming gradual higher highs and higher lows from its February low just above $60,000. The upper boundary has acted as resistance several times, while the green lower trendline has served as the main support keeping the recovery alive.

However, that same channel is pointing to a bearish argument. An ascending channel can look bullish on the surface because price is moving higher, but it can also become a distribution structure when each push upward loses momentum. According to Mason, Bitcoin’s slow rise inside the channel has created fake strength, giving retail traders the impression that a breakout back to $100,000 is still building.

The important moment that revealed the fake strength was the move into the $82,000 CME gap. Bitcoin reached that CME gap in early May, completed the target, and then was rejected multiple times between May 6 and May 11. This was a textbook trap before the next leg down.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto On X

Bitcoin’s Odds Of Hitting $100,000 In 2026

As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is returning to the lower half of the channel, putting the green support line under pressure. If that support breaks, the structure would no longer look like a steady recovery and the beginning of a push to a new bottom.

The first stage to a new bottom is a breakdown from the ascending channel. From there, the next target is around $70,000, followed by a deeper move to new lows at $60,000. The chart even extends the bearish path deeper, with a dotted projection moving down to as low as $50,000 by early July.

A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity, and strong follow-through above resistance above $82,000. Bitcoin will also need to reclaim the 200-day MA around this same level. According to prediction market Kalshi, there’s only a 32% probability that the Bitcoin price will break above $100,000 again before January 2027.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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