Bitcoin, a leading crypto, is down 2.16% to about $77,000 after extensive bond sell-offs, a hawkish Fed note and renewed Middle East hostilities, with $80K a key ceiling before $90K and lingering uncertainty about when it will cross six figures. Giovanni Santostasi's Bitcoin Power Law estimates BTC is ~56.7% below a fair value of $178,860 and forecasts a permanent move above $100,000 after 2028 with end-of-2026 fair value $198,700 and end-of-2030 fair value $642,400, but the model cautions it misses near-term volatility and does not price in halving, miner capitulation, regulatory or macro/geopolitical shocks ahead of scheduled financial announcements and a Congressional vote on the Digital Assets CLARITY Act.

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Bitcoin (BTC) today is down by 2.16% to trade at about $77,000 following extensive bond sell-offs, a hawkish Fed note, and renewed hostilities in the Middle East. While $80K remains a crucial ceiling to clear on the road to $90K, the question of when Bitcoin will permanently cross the six-figure line also lingers.

Bitcoin at $100,000K: when does it happen?

According to Giovanni Santostasi’s Bitcoin Power Law Theory, the asset is trading at roughly 56.7% below its fair value of $178,860. This is essentially the midline between the current resistance ceiling/cycle peak of $553,000 and a support line/absolute bottom of $63,460.

Source: Bitbo

Historically, Bitcoin trading at 0-10% above the lower resistance has signaled an optimal buying zone. Even more, the Power Law predicts that Bitcoin will cross the $100,000 support line for good after 2028.

Predictions for 2026-2030

Per the Power Law model, here are the projections for BTC price at the end of 2026 through 2030.

End of 2026: support line at $69,500, fair value at $198,700, and resistance ceiling at $615,000.

End of 2027: support line at $95,400, fair value at $272,500, and resistance ceiling at $844,000.

End of 2029: support line at $171,300, fair value at $489,500, and resistance ceiling at $1,515,000.

End of 2030: support line at $224,800, fair value at $642,400, and resistance ceiling at $1,990,000.

Caveats to the Power Law

Historically, the Bitcoin Power Law has been quite reliable in long-term predictions such as the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bottoms.

It has, however, fallen short in near-term predictions due to BTC’s volatility. Furthermore, its chart assumes Bitcoin adoption will forever be up, and it fails to price in events such as halving cycles, miner capitulation, and regulatory, macroeconomic, or geopolitical shocks.

Several financial announcements are scheduled for this month, along with a Congressional vote on the Digital Assets CLARITY Act.

Read the article at Coinpedia