Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model is Back With $532K BTC Price Prediction

With Bitcoin holding above $40,000 for more than a month now, previously written-off pricing models have been revived.

On Jan. 7, stock-to-flow creator “PlanB” commented that when he wrote the S2F article calling for a $55,000 Bitcoin price, “People said I was crazy.”

He added that Bitcoin is around $40,000 at the moment, and the S2F model predicts a top price of $532,000 after this year’s halving. “People say it is impossible,” he added. 

MN Trading CEO Michaël van de Poppe added, “That is not impossible with institutions jumping on the markets.”

In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible.

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 7, 2024

Bitcoin to The Moon? 

The stock-to-flow model was originally published in March 2019. It explores the relationship between supply production and the current stock available, essentially calculating Bitcoin’s value through scarcity.

According to the latest Bitcoin 200-week moving average and realized price chart, which looks very similar to the S2F chart, prices are back above the two indicators and are about to enter the bull market zone. 

Last week, LookintoBitcoin founder Philip Swift reported that BTC prices had now returned to the S2F line, revalidating the price prediction model. 

From the bear market lows, #bitcoin price has now climbed back to the Stock-to-Flow line. pic.twitter.com/uKrDiSJcWB

— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) January 3, 2024

In his latest video, PlanB said that the model value is currently between $50,000 and $60,000, with prices just below it. 

“I think in the next 3-4 months towards the halving, we will see Bitcoin prices rise even further towards the $50K to $60K region,” he said. 

However, the price will not rise immediately after the halving but will have a bit of a lag, he added. 

The model has been criticized in the past for its overly generous price predictions. In 2021, CryptoPotato reported that it predicted a $135,000 BTC price by the end of that year. In reality, Bitcoin reached $69,000 at the peak of its last cycle in late 2021. 

BTC Price Outlook 

In the short term, Bitcoin prices are retreating again, with a 1% dip on the day to $43,577 at the time of writing. 

The $44K to $45K zone has been heavy resistance for the past month. However, a positive outcome from the US Securities and Exchange Commission regarding spot Bitcoin ETF approvals this week could push the asset higher. 

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