XRP has been grinding lower since its July 2025 peak near $3.65 and now trades around $1.11, with retail activity, active addresses and open interest sliding (from $1.32B to $764.57M) while Network Realized PnL stayed deeply negative and an Age Consumed spike on July 1 points to capitulation risk. Large holders (10M–100M XRP) have been accumulating through 2026, funding rates turned positive in July and multi-timeframe MVRV remains below zero suggesting undervaluation and potential long-term accumulation, but technical confirmation requires reclaiming the channel and breaking $1.40–$1.60 or price may revisit $0.80, leaving a cautious outlook for crypto, CEX/DEX activity and adoption.

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The XRP price chart shows that it has spent months grinding lower, which is frustrating bulls and it is rewarding almost nobody except patient buyers.

On the surface , the XRP’s trend still looks awfully ugly. But digging into the on-chain data, a more complicated story begins to emerge. As retail participation continues fading, losses are mounting, yet spoke of the largest holders appearing to be moving in the opposite direction. That’s where XRP gets more interesting.

XRP Retail Activity Keeps Drying Up

Right now, there are several onchain metrics pointing toward a prolonged capitulation phase rather than renewed enthusiasm.

The daily transaction volume profit-to-loss ratio surged to 3.802, supported by 22.04 million in realized profit against 5.79 million in realized losses.

At the same time, Network Realized PnL remained deeply negative on July 7, which is suggesting many participants continue exiting positions at a loss.

Another notable signal arrived on July 1, when a sharp Age consumed spike indicated older dormant coins were suddenly moving.

Historically, such activity has often appeared during periods of structural capitulation rather than market euphoria.

Meanwhile, market participation keeps shrinking. Active addresses across the 24-hour, 7-day, and 30-day timeframes have steadily declined since January 2026, while whale transaction counts have also weakened.

That fading engagement coincides with open interest dropping from $1.32 billion to $764.57 million, highlighting a sharp reduction in speculative positioning clearly.

XRP Whales Tell A Different Story

Retail sentiment may be deteriorating, but larger holders appear to be following another playbook.

Wallets holding between 10million to 100 million XRP have accumulated throughout 2026, even as mid-sized holders 100K to 10 million have distributed tokens and smaller investors from 10 to 100,000 coins have shown limited growth.

At the same time, funding rates have turned positive during July that is indicating speculative short position has eased alongside mega whales rising, this suggesting that bullish positioning could be gradually returning to the derivatives market.

Adding to that backdrop, every major MVRV timeframe, including 30-day, 180-day, 1year, and three year metrics remains below the zero line, placing XRP in an undervalued zone.

XRP Price Chart Still Demands Technical Confirmation

Despite improving accumulation signals, the XRP price remains trapped inside a well-defined descending parallel channel that has governed the market since peaking near $3.65 in July 2025.

The asset is now compressing around the key $1.00 psychological support level. If broader market weakness intensifies, particularly alongside a deeper correction in the leading cryptocurrency, XRP price could break below the channel and revisit the $0.80 support region.

For the bearish structure to genuinely change, buyers must first reclaim the channel’s upper trendline before pushing price back above the $1.40-$1.60 resistance zone. Until both hurdles are cleared, technical momentum remains cautious even as onchain data hints that long-term accumulation may already be underway beneath the surface.