Why Bitcoin Didn’t Correlate With the Rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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2026 divergence: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs on the AI boom while Bitcoin trades below $80,000, well under its late‑2025 peak of $126,000. Market drivers: high interest rates and weak ETF inflows have kept BTC under pressure; Bitcoin continues to behave like a risk asset as investors favor AI stocks and gold over crypto. Implication for crypto: short‑term headwinds for price and adoption, with potential impacts on ETF flows, CEX/DEX volumes and market correlation analysis.
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- Stocks hit record highs on the AI boom, while Bitcoin lags below its 2025 peak.
- High rates and weak ETF inflows keep Bitcoin under pressure despite risk-on markets.
- BTC still trades like a risk asset as investors favor AI stocks and gold over crypto.
Bitcoin has spent years moving almost in sync with U.S. stocks, especially technology shares. When the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 rallied, Bitcoin usually rallied harder. When equities crashed, Bitcoin often fell even faster.
But 2026 has looked very different.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently reached fresh all-time highs, fueled by strong corporate earnings and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has remained stuck below $80,000, trading well below its late-2025 peak of $126,000.
The divergence has surprised many investors because crypto and equities have become deeply connected over the last…
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