What Are the Odds of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts in June Amid US-Iran War and Ceasefire
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Ceasefire pushed oil below $95, raising odds of an earlier Fed rate cut in June; markets now focus on PCE and March CPI (core m/m 0.4%, core y/y 3.0%; headline m/m 0.4%, y/y 2.8%) plus GDP and jobless claims. Crypto markets reacted sharply with large Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidations, boosting short-term volatility across spot, CEXs and DeFi/DEX markets. Macro mix is ambiguous for crypto adoption and funding: easing policy would be bullish, but resilient labor and mixed GDP keep policy timing uncertain.
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- Ceasefire eased oil below $95, raising odds for earlier Fed rate cuts.
- Mixed US data show modest GDP growth and a resilient labor market.
- Crypto markets sharply reacted, led by Ethereum and Bitcoin liquidations.
The odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June are in flux after the recent US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts, including Mohamed A. El-Erian, note that markets are closely watching US economic data, including PCE inflation, GDP, and jobless claims, to gauge monetary policy direction.
While the PCE index remains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, attention has shifted to upcoming CPI data for March, as it reflects more recent price movements. Consensus expects core monthly inflation to rise slightly to 0.4% and annual core inflation to ease to 3.0%.
Headline inflation is forecast at 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually. These numbers will strongly influence mark…
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