Bitcoin Price Prediction: Tom Lee Says One Monthly Close Ends the Bear Market for Good

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BTC at $79,642 (May 9): reclaimed 20 EMA $77,895 and 50 EMA $75,327 but still below 200 EMA $82,038; broke a descending trendline from the Oct 2025 ~$126,000 peak, signaling technical recovery with looming resistance. Spot ETF flows: $277.50M outflow on May 7 after five days of inflows; Fundstrat's Tom Lee highlights $76,000 as a critical monthly-close level for May — key for crypto ETF adoption sentiment. Derivatives/liquidity: open interest fell 3.70% to $59.36B and volume dropped 12.98%, suggesting position exits and reduced CEX/DEX liquidity that could mute near-term momentum.
- BTC spot ETFs logged $277.50M in outflows May 7, snapping five straight days of inflows
- Open interest down 3.70% to $59.36B as volume drops 12.98%, pointing to position exits
- Price reclaimed the 20 EMA at $77,895 but still trades below the 200 EMA at $82,038
Bitcoin trades at $79,642 on May 9, holding above the 20 EMA after a multi-month recovery but facing its first ETF outflow day in nearly a week, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee drawing a clear line in the sand at $76,000 for May’s monthly close.
What the Daily Chart Says About $80,000

The daily chart shows BTC has broken above a descending trendline that had capped price since the October 2025 peak near $126,000. The 20 EMA at $77,895 and 50 EMA at $75,327 are now both below price, a positive shift after months of acting as resistance. The Parabolic SAR at $76,718…
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