On-chain and market metrics show Binance's CEX XRP reserves fell by about 500 million from roughly 3.1 billion in November 2025 to 2.6 billion (lowest since Feb 2024) while U.S. spot XRP ETFs have recorded $130.5 million in weekly inflows and about $1.68 billion total; XRP pulled back 5% to around $1.31 after rallying to $1.70 and saw $8.83 million in liquidations. Analyst darkfost views the reserve decline as long-term accumulation and notes a similar February 2024 reserve drop preceded a >50% rally, implying a potential longer-term target near $2.50 but with short-term downside risk.

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XRP price is down 5% today after last week’s rally pushed the token to $1.70. However, while the price has pulled back, on-chain data is showing a different trend.

Binance’s XRP reserves have fallen by around 500 million tokens since November 2025, reaching levels last seen in early 2024.

Could this drop in exchange supply repeat the 2024 rally?

Binance XRP Reserves Fall to 2.6 Billion

According to CryptoQuant analyst darkfost, Binance’s monthly average XRP reserves have fallen from around 3.1 billion XRP in November 2025 to 2.6 billion XRP now.

The latest CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s XRP balance has steadily declined to its lowest level since February 2024.

Darkfost said the decline could point to long-term XRP accumulation, with investors moving tokens to private wallets. The falling Binance reserves also come after the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November and December 2025, as ETF issuers may have bought XRP from the market.

Even for now, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $130.50 million in weekly inflows, taking total inflows to around $1.68 billion.

How XRP Price Reacted When XRP Reserve Fell

The current move becomes more interesting when compared with the February 2024 setup.

At that time, XRP traded near $0.52 before climbing to around $0.78 within roughly two to three weeks, delivering a gain of more than 50%.

A similar setup appears to be forming now, with Binance’s XRP reserves already down by about 500 million tokens.

XRP climbed about 53% after reaching $1.70 last week, but has since fallen to around $1.31. The move could reflect profit-taking after the strong rally.

Following this drop, XRP price faced a massive liquidation, with total XRP liquidations reaching $8.83 million, including $8.15 million from long positions.

Can XRP Repeat the 2024 Move?

If the current setup follows a similar pattern, XRP could see another strong move of 50% from its current price level.

A repeat of that move would put $2.50 within the range of a possible longer-term target, although the previous move does not guarantee the same result this time.

For now, darkfost considers the falling Binance reserves “a relatively positive signal”, but said the trend matters more for the long term than immediate price action.

Read the article at Coinpedia