Bitcoin trades at $80,416 (up 1.46% last hour) but remains ~37.5% below ATH; analyst Aralez (May 8) forecasts a retrace toward ~$60,000 in May–June 2026 tied to an S&P 500 slide below ~6,800. Cycle bottom likely in Q3 2026 with panic peaking and accumulation by long-term holders; expects a new Fed chair (Kevin Warsh) to signal early rate cuts while S&P could dip under ~5,900. Q4 2026 outlook is recovery: Bitcoin >$85,000 as formal Fed rate cuts begin and institutional participation returns, signaling renewed crypto adoption and improved market liquidity.

Bearish

Predictions Markets

See what traders are focused on

View analytics →

Bitcoin is presently trading above $80,000, as market bulls sustain the rebound from early April. However, the flagship cryptocurrency remains firmly in bear-market territory, down roughly 37.5% from its all-time high. Amid the ongoing rally, crypto analyst Aralez has outlined a potential price trajectory for the remainder of 2026, highlighting the key macroeconomic and market catalysts likely to shape Bitcoin’s next major move.

Bitcoin To Fall Again, Cycle Bottom Likely In Q3

In an X post on May 8, Aralez shares an interesting Bitcoin price prediction for the last eight months of 2026. While prices have gained by 13% in the last month, the market pundit predicts that Bitcoin should eventually move towards the $60,000 before the present quarter expires. The projected price retrace is expected to coincide with a decline in the S&P 500 below $6000, suggesting a worsening or unfavorable macroeconomic environment. At this point, panic is expected to ravage the market, leading to a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment.

MARKET PREDICTION BY THE END OF 2026:

MAY-JUNE:

– $BTC drops toward $60k– S&P 500 is < $6.8k– Panic takes over market

Q3:

– BTC forms cycle bottom + accumulation begins– New Fed chair + early rate cut signals– Distrust in crypto reaches peak levels– S&P 500 is < $5.9k… https://t.co/d7BkISInp9 pic.twitter.com/DuFVYPEvv3

— Aralez (@0xAralez) May 8, 2026

Moving into Q3, Aralez foresees a much-anticipated cycle bottom, where sell-off should have slowed down as long-term investors begin to boost their holdings. Nevertheless, there would still be general distrust of Bitcoin, with sentiment mostly negative. At the same time, incoming US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to signal an early rate cut, which should boost macro confidence. Meanwhile, Aralez also projects a decline in the S&P 500 below $5,900, reinforcing the idea that broader financial markets may still be under pressure even as smart money quietly positions itself

Q4: New Cycle Begins

Moving into Q4, Aralez anticipates a decisive shift into recovery territory, with Bitcoin breaking above $85,000 as market momentum strengthens and accumulation from earlier phases begins to be reflected in price action. This stage is expected to coincide with the formal start of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signaling a clear easing of monetary conditions and an improvement in overall liquidity across financial markets.

As confidence gradually returns, the analysis suggests the beginning of a new market cycle, driven by renewed institutional participation and sustained accumulation in risk assets. At the same time, the S&P 500 is projected to stabilize around the 6,000 level, indicating that while equities may recover some ground, the broader macro environment remains in a cautious rebuilding phase rather.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $80,416 reflecting a minor 1.46% gain in the last hour.