Is crude heading back to $100? Crypto traders drive $500M weekend Hyperliquid oil bets over Strait of Hormuz closure

Crypto traders traded more than $500 million in synthetic oil futures over the weekend on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, betting that renewed military conflict in the Middle East could push crude prices back to $100 a barrel.

The surge in blockchain-based trading followed Iran's abrupt decision to shut the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, reversing a reopening announced just a day earlier.

Reports of attacks on vessels near the vital waterway sent investors scrambling for ways to hedge their energy exposure while traditional global financial markets were closed.

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Oil prices rise on Hyperliquid

On Hyperliquid, perpetual futures tied to the international benchmark Brent crude jumped above $90 a barrel, erasing a recent 10% drop triggered by news of the brief re-opening of the Strait on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate contracts climbed to $86, up sharply from a $79 close on traditional commodity exchanges Friday afternoon.

The weekend rush highlights a growing shift among market participants utilizing blockchain infrastructure to bypass standard trading hours.

Unlike Wall Street, crypto derivatives platforms operate continuously.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 system allows developers to create 24/7 leveraged futures markets for traditional assets like oil, gold, and equities, provided they lock up 500,000 of the platform’s native HYPE tokens as collateral.

Driven by the ongoing geopolitical panic, open interest across these synthetic markets has reached a record of more than $2 billion.

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US-Iran renew hostilities on Strait of Hormuz

The renewed hostilities stem from a breakdown in a temporary ceasefire set to expire on April 22.

President Donald Trump said that a US naval blockade of Iranian ports will persist until a peace agreement is reached.

In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to target any approaching commercial vessels, claiming it would maintain the closure until the US lifts its port restrictions.

Following the closure, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said on X:

“We warned you, but you didn't pay attention! Now enjoy the return of the Strait of Hormuz situation to its previous state.”

Crypto betters on prediction markets quickly priced in the pessimism. On Polymarket, another blockchain-based platform, the betting odds that shipping traffic in the strait would normalize by the end of the month plummeted to 22% as of press time.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical anxiety has also halted momentum in the broader crypto market. Bitcoin hovered around $75,028 on Sunday as traders abandoned riskier digital assets in favor of defensive energy hedges.

With global inflation already a lingering concern, markets are bracing for higher manufacturing and transportation costs if Monday morning's traditional market open pushes crude past the $100 threshold.

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