MSTR’s Bitcoin Per Share Gets ‘Annihilated’ in Extreme Bear Case: Analyst

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A three-year stress test of MicroStrategy (MSTR) finds the company could technically survive an extreme crypto downturn but common shareholders would suffer significant losses. The modeled scenario assumes Bitcoin plunges 55% from $59,100 to $26,600 in six months, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets remain closed and forced BTC sales would increase market risk and funding pressures.
A three-year stress test of Strategy (MSTR) suggests the company could survive an extreme market downturn, although common shareholders would face significant losses, according to Bitcoin-focused author and market commentator Adam Livingston.
The model assumed a severe scenario in which Bitcoin falls 55% from $59,100 to $26,600 within six months, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets remain closed, and the company is forced to sell BTC to meet its obligations.
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