Bitcoin Price Could Be Near a Major Bottom, Historic Metrics Suggest

Bitcoin price could be approaching a major market bottom as multiple on-chain indicators begin flashing signals that have historically appeared near previous cycle lows. After months of sustained selling pressure and a sharp decline from yearly highs, BTC has started stabilizing near the critical $60,000 support zone.

Although short-term sentiment remains cautious, long-term data paints a more constructive picture. Valuation premiums are cooling, selling pressure continues to decline, and long-term holders appear increasingly reluctant to distribute coins at current levels. As Bitcoin attempts to build a base above major support, traders are beginning to ask whether the current consolidation could mark the foundation of the next major move.

MVRV Z-Score Signals Valuation Reset

Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has recently fallen below the +2 standard deviation level after spending much of the previous cycle in elevated territory. Historically, readings above +2 have reflected overheated market conditions and excessive unrealized profits across the network. A move below this threshold often signals that valuation premiums are cooling and market conditions are returning to equilibrium.

Importantly, the metric remains well above historical undervaluation zones, suggesting Bitcoin has not entered full capitulation territory. Instead, the current environment appears more consistent with a market reset than the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

Sell-Side Risk Ratio Enters Accumulation Territory

Another important on-chain metric supporting the bullish case is Bitcoin’s Adjusted Sell-side Risk Ratio. The indicator has fallen into historically low territory, levels that previously appeared during major accumulation periods in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Such readings indicate that realized profits and losses have become relatively small compared to Bitcoin’s overall market value.

In practical terms, investors appear increasingly unwilling to sell at current prices, while long-term holders continue removing supply from the market. Historically, these periods have often preceded renewed upside momentum.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Analysts See Early Bottom Formation

Bitcoin price continues trading near the major $58,000-$60,000 demand zone after suffering a prolonged correction from its yearly highs. BTC breaks down from a multi-month ascending structure after facing strong rejection near the $84,000 resistance area. Since then, the market has produced a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the broader corrective trend.

However, analysts note that the recent price action is beginning to resemble a bottoming structure rather than an active distribution phase. Repeated defenses of the $58,000 support region suggest buyers continue absorbing supply at lower levels. The decline in downside momentum and improving on-chain conditions further strengthen the accumulation narrative.

The first bullish confirmation would likely arrive if Bitcoin reclaims the $65,000 resistance level. A breakout above this area could trigger renewed buying interest and open the door toward the $70,000 region. A breakdown below the current support zone could invalidate the developing recovery structure and expose BTC to further downside toward the $54,000 region.

Cantor Sees Bitcoin Bottom Forming Later This Year

Adding to the accumulation narrative, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald believe Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of its current correction cycle. Historical cycle analysis suggests previous Bitcoin bear markets typically established their lows several months after major peaks. 

🚨CANTOR: BITCOIN BEAR CYCLE MAY BOTTOM AROUND OCTOBER

Cantor Fitzgerald says Bitcoin may be in the late stages of its current bear cycle.$BTC is now 252 days past its 2025 peak and down about 51%.

In the last 3 cycles, Bitcoin bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking,… pic.twitter.com/7nInMpmlGb

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 2, 2026

If historical patterns continue to play out, some analysts believe the current cycle could potentially bottom later this year. While such projections remain speculative, they reinforce the growing view that Bitcoin may be closer to a long-term bottom than the beginning of a new bear market.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s price action may still appear fragile, but several historical indicators are beginning to suggest that downside risks are becoming increasingly limited. Cooling valuation metrics, declining sell-side pressure, and strong support near $60,000 all point toward a possible accumulation phase.

As long as Bitcoin continues holding its major support zone, traders will closely watch whether improving on-chain signals can eventually translate into a broader market recovery.