Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom: What 2 Key On-Chain Signals Just Revealed

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $62,600, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Two long-term on-chain indicators now suggest the Bitcoin bear market bottom is drawing closer, though neither confirms it has arrived.

The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue against its yearly average, while long-term holder supply tracks coins unmoved for over 155 days. Historically, both metrics flagged every major Bitcoin cycle low.

Puell Multiple Nears the Zone That Marked 5 Bitcoin Bottoms

The Puell Multiple divides the daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin by its 365-day moving average. Readings below 0.5 have historically signaled miner capitulation and cyclical lows.

Glassnode data shows five extended visits to this zone. They occurred in 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022. Each coincided with a macro low in the BTC price. The indicator also briefly touched the zone in 2012 and mid-2021.

Today, the multiple hovers just above 0.5. It is approaching the historical bottom zone but has not entered it decisively. Therefore, the data suggests the final low may still be ahead. A similar reading in early 2023 marked the moment miners stopped selling, and the market stabilized.

Meanwhile, the indicator’s peaks and troughs keep compressing from cycle to cycle. This long-term contraction mirrors Bitcoin’s declining volatility as the asset matures.

An analyst known as PositiveCrypto commented on the setup on X.

“Interesting. The Puell Multiple currently shows daily miner revenue well below its 365 day average, a setup that has always appeared at late bear market lows. Painful for miners as margins compress, but historically these are levels where BTC returns are greatest from.”

Long-Term Holder Supply Hits a Record 16.75 Million BTC

While miner revenue compresses, Bitcoin’s most patient investors keep buying. Long-term holder supply, defined as coins unmoved for more than 155 days, reached a record 16.75 million BTC on July 11, according to Galaxy Research.

That equals nearly 84% of the circulating supply. A record level while the price sits about 50% below its peak indicates steady accumulation rather than distribution.

The pattern is familiar. In each previous cycle, long-term holder supply pushed to new highs as the bear market deepened. It then kept climbing until the cyclical bottom formed. Recent flows support this reading, as long-term holders flipped back to net buying on July 11 and 12.

If history repeats, this metric could keep rising while the Puell Multiple grinds lower, until the market prints its final low.

What Both Signals Suggest for the BTC Price

The two indicators tell one coherent story. Strong hands are accumulating into weakness, but the capitulation that historically ends Bitcoin bear markets has not fully materialized.

A decisive Puell Multiple drop below 0.5, met with rising long-term holder supply, would replicate the setup of five previous cycle bottoms. On-chain models point to a possible low near $47,000, about 25% below the current price.

However, the indicator’s shrinking amplitude adds nuance. With volatility declining each cycle, a brief touch of the 0.5 boundary may prove sufficient this time.

Either the Puell Multiple completes its journey into the green zone and BTC carves out a durable low. Or patient accumulation absorbs the remaining sell pressure first, shortening the path to recovery.