XRP is down >60% from its 2025 peak (ATH $3.65); an analyst argues the impulsive wave ended in Jan 2025 and the current correction has run ~61 weeks with a ~71.5% drawdown, echoing a 2021 85%/427‑day decline. Technical setup: a descending trendline targets $1.05 as a potential final downside; bullish confirmation would require a monthly bottom and a decisive break above $1.80, opening targets at $3.4–$3.6 and a stretch to $4 (≈281% from $1.05, ≈200% from ~$1.38). Implication for crypto traders and token performance: scenario is constructive if support holds and resistance is cleared, but significant downside risk remains—relevant for price action, market timing and liquidity considerations.

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XRP’s prolonged decline has seen its price down more than 60% from its 2025 peak, placing it inside what can be viewed as an extended corrective phase. As expected, this has led to questions among crypto investors as to whether XRP can still go on a rally this year that would see it push to new all-time highs and possibly above $4.

One analyst has now laid out a scenario suggesting XRP could soon complete its correction and begin another upward wave that may eventually push the price to new highs.

XRP May Be Nearing The End Of A Long Corrective Phase

The prevailing discussion around XRP’s decline in the past few months has largely centered on the cryptocurrency topping out at its summer 2025 all-time high of $3.65. According to one analyst posting on X, that reading may be fundamentally incorrect.

Based on this analysis, the impulsive wave for XRP completed as far back as January 2025, when XRP reached a peak above $3.30. This was several months before the all-time high was printed. The subwaves originating from July 2024 fit best as an impulsive structure that concluded in January 2025, with the price action that followed, including the ATH, forming a corrective pattern.

The last major corrective stretch on the weekly chart lasted 61 weeks from top to bottom and erased about 85% of XRP’s value before the next meaningful recovery began. Applying that same time window to the January 2025 high would place the current correction close to completion around mid-March 2026.

XRP Price

XRP Price Chart. Source: @protechtor On X

As shown in the chart above, XRP’s earlier correction after 2021 unfolded inside a descending channel and lasted 61 bars, or 427 days, before finding a low. The price decline during that phase reached about 85.34%.

The current structure on the right side of the chart is looking like that earlier breakdown in both shape and duration. This time, the decline has so far reached about 71.52%, with the same 61-week duration highlighted as a key timing marker. A descending trendline cuts through the current price structure and converges at $1.05. According to the analyst, that level could serve as the final downside target if XRP has not already bottomed.

Can XRP Still Reach $4 In 2026?

A move to $4 in 2026 would require XRP to do far more than just bounce from support, but the scenario is not unrealistic if the current correction is approaching its end. A rally from the analyst’s suggested downside at $1.05 to $4 would represent a gain of about 281%. Even from the price zone shown on the chart, around $1.38, XRP would still need to climb 200% to reclaim and break beyond the upper boundary of the current corrective structure.

A confirmed monthly bottom followed by a strong push above the horizontal resistance area at $1.80 would likely be the first signal. From there, the upper trendline of the current structure and the prior highs around the $3.4 to $3.6 range would become the next price targets. This is where the $4 discussion will become more realistic.