Since January 2024, gold has surged 58% while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 12%. Gold hit a record $4,381 per ounce in October and now trades near $4,216, up nearly 59% year-to-date.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, tumbled 21% in November alone, slipping into the low $80,000s before clawing back toward $91,000.

The gap reveals a deeper story: central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and even crypto’s biggest stablecoin issuer are quietly piling into bullion while institutional trust in Bitcoin as a reserve asset remains stubbornly elusive.

Central Banks, Tether and ‘serious money’ crowd into gold

The official sector is sending an unmistakable signal. The World Gold Council’s 2025 survey found that a record 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, up from 81% in 2024.

Meanwhile, 76% anticipate gold will occupy a larger share of total reserves within five years.

Central banks have purchased more than 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years, double the 400–500 tonne average of the prior decade.

Russia’s central bank put it bluntly: emerging-market reserve managers are diversifying into gold as the G7 debates deploying frozen Russian assets.

“The precious metal is benefiting from sustained demand from central banks in emerging markets, which are continuing to diversify their international reserves,” the bank stated.

For officials who can physically hold bullion in their own vaults, gold carries no counterparty risk, an attribute Bitcoin cannot yet replicate for sovereign balance sheets.

Adding a curious twist, Tether, issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin now holds 116 tonnes of gold, rivaling reserves of South Korea, Hungary, and Greece.

Jefferies estimates Tether’s Q3 purchases alone accounted for 2% of global gold demand and nearly 12% of central-bank buying that quarter.

Even a crypto heavyweight is treating gold, not Bitcoin, as its reserve anchor.

Major banks reinforce the bias. Goldman Sachs projects gold reaching $4,900 by late 2026, while UBS targets $4,500 by mid-year, with upside to $4,900. Deutsche Bank forecasts an average of $4,450 in 2026.

Bitcoin feels the liquidity squeeze as gold shines

Mark Connors, founder of bitcoin advisory Risk Dimensions and former Credit Suisse global head of risk advisory, offers a blunt assessment:

Bitcoin is still too young. The buyers that matter: central banks, sovereign wealth funds, large asset allocators, they still prefer gold.

The problem isn’t solely volatility; it’s infrastructure and habit. Gold has centuries of established trade channels; central banks already hold gold accounts and use bullion for international settlement.

“There’s a trade component to gold that brings real demand,” Connors says. “Bitcoin doesn’t have that yet”.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, notes Bitcoin is “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2020 and 2022,” comparable to the Covid crash and FTX collapse.

In such risk-off environments, capital gravitates toward proven liquidity havens without default risk: gold fits; Bitcoin doesn’t, yet.

For now, “smart money” tilts heavily toward gold, while retail and crypto-native traders supply most of Bitcoin’s marginal bid.

That dynamic could shift. Dragosch argues the current setup offers “asymmetric risk-reward,” Bitcoin has already priced in recession fears, and improving macro conditions could trigger outsized rallies.

Gold remains today’s trust and liquidity trade; Bitcoin endures as a long-dated call option on a different monetary future.

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