US demand has weakened: Coinbase Premium remains negative, global Bitcoin funds recorded >$190M net outflows the week ending Mar 27, and average US spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis is $83,400 vs BTC price around $66,820 (47% below ATH $126,000; 24% below the year's open $87,600). Large supply overhang on-chain: ~9 million BTC (~40% of circulating supply) are held at a loss with ~ $598B unrealized loss per Glassnode, a condition likened to Q2 2022. Long-term holder capitulation and weak demand: realized losses among >155‑day holders ≈ $200M, Capriole Apparent Demand at -1,623 BTC, and ongoing retail selling indicate broader market distribution—negative for price, adoption and investor sentiment in crypto, ETFs and exchanges.

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Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss — and the numbers show it’s becoming a pattern, not an anomaly.

US Buyers Stay On The Sidelines

Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index has stayed negative in recent weeks, a sign that American investors have largely pulled back from the market.

According to CryptoQuant, the gap between BTC pricing on Coinbase and Binance reflects a broader reluctance among US buyers to step back in at current levels.

That hesitation is showing up across multiple data points, from exchange flows to investment product performance.

Global Bitcoin investment funds recorded more than $190 million in net outflows during the week ending March 27. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which drew heavy institutional interest during their launch period, are now sitting below water for many of their holders.

Data shows the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors sits at $83,400 — well above where the price is trading today.

Bitcoin was changing hands at around $66,820 when this report was made, roughly 47% below its all-time high of $126,000, which was set in October 2025. The price is also 24% below its yearly open of $87,600, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.

Nearly 9 Million BTC Held At A Loss

Close to 9 million Bitcoin — more than 40% of the total circulating supply — are currently held by investors who paid more than the current price, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. The combined unrealized loss on that supply comes to roughly $598 billion.

Glassnode drew a comparison to conditions last seen in the second quarter of 2022, one of Bitcoin’s most painful stretches in recent memory. Back then, around 3 million BTC had to change hands before the market found its footing again.

Based on reports from Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain newsletter, resolving a supply overhang of this size has historically meant coins moving from sellers taking losses to new buyers willing to enter at lower prices.

Demand, for now, is not keeping up. Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric logged a reading of -1,623 BTC on Thursday. That figure has stayed negative since mid-December 2025. CryptoQuant described the situation as broad market distribution, driven by continued selling from retail participants.

Long-Term Holders Begin To Crack

Perhaps the sharpest signal in the data involves investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This group, typically seen as the most committed segment of the market, is now selling at a loss at an elevated rate.

Glassnode reported that realized losses among long-term holders have climbed to $200 million — a level the firm described as confirmation of active capitulation.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Read the article at NewsBTC