Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 to about $79,800 after rejection near $82,800; bearish divergences on 1H/4H and a break under the 200‑day MA put $78,000 as first major support and realized profits hit the highest level since Dec 2025 following a ~37% rally from April lows. Institutional flows and tightening supply remain supportive: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded weekly net inflows of ~$1.05B (≈3,000 BTC), while CEX reserves fell by nearly 100,000 BTC since February (Binance 670k→620k, OKX 132k→102k, Gemini ~115k→<95k) and accumulator addresses rose from 164,440 to 264,000 BTC by May 6. Near‑term risks could cap upside: Coinbase reported a second consecutive quarterly loss (May 7) and geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz added pressure to crypto sentiment and spot demand.

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Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000 after a failed breakout above key resistance triggered caution among traders.

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin slipped toward $79,800 on Thursday after being rejected near $82,800, with lower timeframe charts showing weakening momentum as the rally lost strength below the 200-day moving average and exponential moving average cluster.

Technical indicators on the one-hour and four-hour charts formed bearish divergences during the latest advance.

Analysts said the pattern emerged as Bitcoin printed higher local highs while the relative strength index weakened, signaling that buying pressure was fading near resistance.

Well-followed Crypto trader Jelle noted that the 200-day MA and EMA cluster remained the key barrier preventing further upside, while identifying $78,000 as the first major support zone bulls are trying to defend.

Bitcoin price chart. Source: Crypto trader Jelle on X.

Jelle added that a successful retest of the moving average cluster could still support another attempt toward higher price levels.

Geopolitical concerns also weighed on sentiment after uncertainty resurfaced around negotiations tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports that Iranian officials rejected parts of a US proposal added pressure across risk assets as traders reassessed the outlook for energy markets and global trade stability.

Meanwhile, profit-taking also intensified after Bitcoin rallied roughly 37% from its April lows.

On-chain data showed realized profits climbed to their highest level since December 2025 earlier this week as traders reduced exposure near the $81,000 to $82,000 region.

Against this backdrop, crypto exchange Coinbase added to concerns surrounding market participation after reporting its second consecutive quarterly loss on May 7.

The exchange said trading activity weakened during 2026 because of fading momentum and tighter financial conditions, reinforcing concerns that spot demand has slowed at higher price levels.

Nevertheless, there are still signs of underlying demand strength that could help support Bitcoin’s price action in the coming sessions.

ETF inflows and exchange outflows continue supporting Bitcoin

Despite the latest pullback, institutional demand has remained firm through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Weekly net inflows crossed $1.05 billion, the strongest intake since January, signaling that large investors continued accumulating during the correction.

Swissblock data showed the Bitcoin Risk Index resetting near zero while ETF net flows turned positive again at roughly 3,000 BTC.

The firm said previous resets into low-risk conditions often aligned with renewed accumulation near major support areas.

“ETF demand is absorbing selling pressure. This remains a flow-driven breakout,” Swissblock wrote.

Supply across major exchanges has also continued tightening.

The trend was highlighted by Crypto Quant analyst Amr Taha, who pointed out that Binance, OKX, and Gemini had collectively recorded nearly 100,000 BTC in reserve outflows since February.

Bitcoin Multi Exchange Reserve. Source: Crypto Quant.

Binance reserves declined to nearly 620,000 BTC from around 670,000 BTC in February, while OKX balances dropped from roughly 132,000 BTC to 102,000 BTC.

Gemini reserves also fell below 95,000 BTC after holding near 115,000 BTC earlier this year.

“The key signal is the synchronized decline. Bitcoin may be entering a tighter supply environment, where renewed demand could have a stronger price impact because fewer coins appear to be sitting on exchanges,” the analyst wrote.

In the meantime, long-term holders were also seen increasing their exposure during Bitcoin’s recovery phase.

CryptoQuant data showed holdings tied to accumulator addresses climbed to 264,000 BTC on May 6 from 164,440 BTC on April 23, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rebound toward $82,800.

As such, Bitcoin could be positioning itself for a supply-shock rally if this demand-supply imbalance continues to strengthen.

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