Drift Protocol

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Hassan Bassiri

Vice President, Portfolio Manager at Arca Funds

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Bitcoin halvings often boost adoption and awareness as they generate significant media attention and discussions within the cryptocurrency community. The anticipation of reduced supply issuance can attract new users, investors, and businesses to the Bitcoin ecosystem, contributing to its growth and recognition in the wider financial world.

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Bitcoin block rewards are the payments miners receive for validating transactions and creating new blocks. They consist of newly generated bitcoins and transaction fees.

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Understanding Bitcoin dominance is critical for navigating the dynamic landscape of the cryptocurrency market. As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin often sets the tone for market sentiment and trends. Tracking Bitcoin dominance provides valuable insights into market dynamics, helping investors identify potential opportunities and assess the overall health of the market.

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Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market. It represents the market share held by Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin halving is an event that reduces the rewards that miners receive for validating and adding new transactions to the blockchain by half and it occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin blockchain. This mechanism is designed to control the issuance of new bitcoins, limit the supply, and maintain Bitcoin's scarcity and value over time.

What Is Bitcoin Halving?

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Halvings reduce bitcoin creation rate, slowing down emission temps over time. This leads to curbing inflation. Decreased block rewards make miners rely more on transaction fees, potentially leading to higher fees and a self-sustaining network. Scarcity often drives up prices, attracting investors seeking hedging against inflation, impacting Bitcoin's economic dynamics. That’s why Bitcoin is often called “Store of Value”.

Economic Implications

Bitcoins are created through a process called mining, where miners compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles by expending computational power. The first miner to solve the puzzle for a block of transactions is rewarded with newly created bitcoins, and this process is how bitcoins are emitted into circulation.

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Fear and Greed Index calculation uses important market metrics to build an unbiased summary of the current sentiment in the market. By analyzing Fear & Greed Index, you will be able to determine the current state of the market, its change over a certain period, and make strategic decisions.

Fear & Greed Index indicates the current market sentiment. There are 4 possible ranges: Extreme Greed, Greed, Fear, and Extreme Fear.<ul><li>Greed means that traders and investors feel too greedy. This may indicate that the market is due for a correction.</li><li>Fear means that traders and investors are too worried, close to panic sells. This could indicate a good entry point.</li></ul>It is also important to analyze how FGI changed over the period of time, for example in one day, week, or month.

The Fear and Greed Index (FGI) is a comprehensive tool for analyzing cryptocurrency sentiment. It is based on several important market indicators to determine the level of fear or greed present, with a range of 0 to 100.{br}{br}The Fear and Greed Index uses various modules to analyze influential variables in the cryptocurrency market, including volume, volatility, dominance, whale movements, search engine data, and order book analysis. It also features a machine learning algorithm that evaluates sentiment in social media posts and how popular technical analysis are affecting the market. Each module is given a specific weight based on its statistical impact on the market.

What Is Fear & Greed Index?

We are assessing Bitcoin's volatility and maximum drawdowns, comparing these metrics with the average values from the past 30 and 90 days. We suggest that an abnormal increase in volatility signals a market driven by fear.

We evaluate current trading volumes and market momentum against 30/90 day averages, then combine these indicators. Typically, high daily buying volumes in a positive market lead us to conclude that the market is excessively greedy or overly bullish.

We collect and tally posts with various hashtags for each coin from Twitter (X) and monitor the speed and volume of interactions within certain time frames. A surge in interaction rates signifies heightened public interest in the coin, which we view as indicative of a greedy market.

A coin’s dominance represents its share of the total crypto market capitalization. For Bitcoin, an increase in dominance often stems from a flight to safety, reducing speculative investments in alt-coins as Bitcoin becomes the preferred safe haven in the crypto space. Conversely, a decrease in Bitcoin dominance suggests growing greed, as investors move into riskier alt-coins anticipating the next major bull run. For other coins, increasing dominance can imply a bullish or greedy sentiment specific to that coin.

We analyze Google Trends data for various Bitcoin-related search queries, focusing on changes in search volumes and identifying other currently popular searches.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is meticulously calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple key metrics that gauge investor sentiment within the cryptocurrency market, such as the following.

How Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index Calculated?

Latest Bitcoin Halving News

There have been three Bitcoin halvings since the launch of the Bitcoin blockchain. These previous halvings occurred in the following years:{br}{br}First Halving: November 28, 2012; the block reward was reduced from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.{br}{br}Second Halving: July 9, 2016; the block reward was reduced from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block.{br}{br}Third Halving: May 11, 2020; the block reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC per block to 6.25 BTC per block.{br}{br}Fourth Halving: April 20, 2024; the block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.

How Many Bitcoin Halvings Have Happened Previously?

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The Bitcoin halving event, which is a process that reduces the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks in half, has significant implications for miners, investors, traders, and users of the Bitcoin blockchain. These implications can be observed in both the short term and the long term. Let's explore some of the key implications in more detail:

How Does Bitcoin Halving Affect The Price of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin halving occurs to control the issuance of new bitcoins and ensure the cryptocurrency's scarcity. Bitcoin's protocol limits the rate at which new bitcoins are created, gradually slowing down the growth of its total supply. This deliberate scarcity is designed to mimic the scarcity and controlled supply of precious commodities like gold, making Bitcoin an attractive store of value and a hedge against inflation.

How Does Bitcoin Halving Work?

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Bitcoin halvings reinforce its reputation as a long-term investment by reducing the rate of supply issuance, making it scarcer over time. This scarcity, coupled with the network's growing adoption and utility, can enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, attracting long-term investors.

Long-Term Investment

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Bitcoin halvings directly impact miners by reducing their block rewards, cutting their income in half. This event can lead to increased competition and pressure on less efficient miners, potentially forcing some to exit the mining ecosystem while incentivizing more efficient operations and technological advancements.

Miner Economics

Mining difficulty is a measure of how much computing power it is required to mine new blocks in a blockchain network. It adjusts regularly to maintain a consistent rate of block production. When more miners join the network, the difficulty increases; when miners leave, it decreases.{br}{br}Hashrate, on the other hand, represents the computational power of the network's miners. It measures how many calculations a network can perform per second. A higher hashrate indicates a more secure and competitive network, as miners with more computational power are more likely to mine new blocks and receive rewards.

Mining Difficulty & Hashrate

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Bitcoin halvings can influence the hash rate and network security by potentially leading to fluctuations in miners' profitability. If the price doesn't rise significantly to compensate for the reduced block rewards, some miners may leave the network, temporarily lowering the hash rate and potentially making the network more vulnerable to attacks until the difficulty adjusts.

Hash Rate and Network Security

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The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in March 2028, when the block height number hits 1,050,000. After that, the next block’s reward will be halved: 1.5625 BTC instead of 3.125 BTC.

The Next Date of Bitcoin Halving

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Bitcoin Price Dependency On Halving

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Bitcoin halvings can increase price volatility because they create uncertainty about future supply reductions. The expectation of reduced issuance can attract speculative trading and result in price fluctuations as market participants respond to changing supply dynamics. This can lead to both upward and downward price swings before and after halving events.

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The key to Bitcoin's long-term success lies in its Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism within a peer-to-peer environment. This mechanism operates independent of external inputs like clock readings. Proof of Work is based on a fundamental truth: computation requires work, and work requires energy and time in our universe.{br}{br}Difficulty adjustments are necessary to prevent Bitcoin's internal clock from speeding up due to increased miner participation or improved mining devices. Without these adjustments, the value of Bitcoin would quickly decline.

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Bitcoin's maximum supply is capped at 21 million Bitcoins. This limit is hard-coded into the Bitcoin protocol and cannot be changed without overwhelming consensus from the network's participants. The maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins will be reached around the year 2140, when the last bitcoin will be mined.

Bitcoin Supply

Bitcoin halvings reinforce the scarcity of supply by reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are created. This controlled reduction in issuance over time maintains and strengthens Bitcoin's inherent scarcity, ultimately enhancing its appeal as a store of value.

Supply Scarcity

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Bitcoin operates on its own internal rhythm, characterized by a low frequency that allows for a sufficient buffer to delay communication between participants during the block validation process. Approximately every 2016 blocks, Bitcoin's internal clock is reset, resulting in an average block discovery rate of one valid block every 10 minutes.

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