BOJ September Rate Hike: What Happens to BTC, ETH and XRP if the Yen Strengthens?
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The BOJ meeting on September 17–18, 2026 is widely seen as likely to deliver a rate hike to about 1.25% (57% in a Reuters poll), which could strengthen the yen and force unwinds of the yen carry trade. Bitcoin faces the biggest downside from leverage and margin liquidations while ETH and XRP may follow a risk-off move, weighing on crypto liquidity, DeFi/DEX activity and token performance.
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- BOJ’s September rate hike could pressure crypto if the yen rises sharply.
- Bitcoin faces the biggest risk from leverage unwinds tied to the yen carry trade.
- ETH and XRP may follow broader market sentiment if risk-off conditions emerge.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold its policy meeting September 17–18, 2026, and most economists now expect a rate hike. A Reuters poll shows 57% expect rates to rise to 1.25%, up from just 5% in July. High inflation and a weak yen are putting pressure on the BOJ to raise rates sooner.
This could also affect crypto. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP have reacted sharply to BOJ decisions in the past. Here’s why it matters and what could happen this time.
The Yen Carry Trade, Explained
For years, Japan kept interest rates near zero. This let investors borrow yen cheaply and use that money to buy higher-yielding assets …
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