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World Cup Winner
«World Cup Winner» is a prediction market on Polymarket. The chart shows real-time probability changes across all outcomes. Track top holders, trading volume, and liquidity for each outcome. The market resolves on Jul 20, 2026.
Rules Event
Markets Statistics
Total Volume
$ 4.01B
Liquidity
$ 45.91M
Volume
$ 58.63M
-15.3%Start Date
Jul 2, 2025
Resolution Date
Jul 20, 2026
Oracle
UMA
Outcome Probabilities
Argentina
19.4%
+11.5%France
33.1%
0%England
14.6%
+2.82%Spain
18.4%
+42.6%Start Date
Jul 2, 2025
Resolution Date
Jul 20, 2026
Oracle
UMA
Key Metrics
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.331
No Price
$0.67
Total Volume
$98.00M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.194
No Price
$0.807
Total Volume
$103.72M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.184
No Price
$0.817
Total Volume
$90.34M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.146
No Price
$0.855
Total Volume
$84.92M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.056
No Price
$0.945
Total Volume
$111.00M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.034
No Price
$0.967
Total Volume
$98.64M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.03
No Price
$0.971
Total Volume
$135.37M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.023
No Price
$0.978
Total Volume
$113.47M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.011
No Price
$0.99
Total Volume
$100.53M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.004
No Price
$0.997
Total Volume
$134.96M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$142.46M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$137.80M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$119.20M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$111.74M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$109.48M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$109.09M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$107.52M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$107.40M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$102.85M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$96.88M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$96.12M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$95.79M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$90.33M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$89.13M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$88.36M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$85.67M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$81.93M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$80.87M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$80.69M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$78.01M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$77.72M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$77.54M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$67.94M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$63.47M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$62.23M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$61.68M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$61.52M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$57.48M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$57.27M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$47.52M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$46.57M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$45.09M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$44.00M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$36.47M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$33.26M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$33.08M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$30.61M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$20.04M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$8.66M
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
Market Overview
Yes Price
$0.00
No Price
$1.00
Total Volume
$264.59K
TVL (Top 10 Holders)
N/A
Top Holders
FAQ
What do Yes Price and No Price mean?
Yes Price is the current market probability that this specific outcome will happen — a Yes Price of $0.16 means traders collectively estimate a 16% chance. No Price reflects the probability it won't happen. The two always sum to approximately $1.00 and update in real time as traders buy and sell positions.
How accurate are prediction market odds compared to real outcomes?
Research consistently shows prediction markets are well-calibrated — events priced at 70% tend to occur roughly 70% of the time, often outperforming traditional polls and analyst forecasts. The Event Chart on this page shows how probabilities have shifted over time, reflecting how new information gets priced in by traders with real money at stake.
How do I read the Event Chart?
The Event Chart shows how the probability of the top-4 outcomes has changed over time. Each coloured line represents one market — the higher the line, the higher the probability traders assign to that outcome. You can switch between timeframes (1H, 6H, 1D, 7D, All) to see short-term momentum or the full history since the market opened.
How do I use this page to track smart money and whale activity?
The Top Holders section shows the largest Yes and No position holders for each market — these are the wallets with the most capital at stake. Their Average Entry Price reveals when they entered and at what conviction level. The TVL (Top 10 Holders) metric shows how much of the total market value is concentrated in the largest positions. A high TVL relative to Total Volume signals that a few large traders are driving price discovery.
What is TVL (Top 10 Holders) and why does it matter?
TVL stands for Total Value Locked — it is the combined dollar value of shares held by the top 10 largest position holders in this market. High TVL relative to Total Volume indicates that a small number of large traders dominate the market, which can make prices more sensitive to their activity and trades.
How do prediction market odds differ from traditional sportsbook odds?
Sportsbooks set odds themselves and profit from the spread between sides. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi work differently — prices emerge from actual supply and demand between traders, so they reflect the collective estimate of probability more directly. There is no house edge built in. On this page you can compare Yes and No prices across all outcomes and see how market consensus evolves in real time.
What is the Chance to Win chart?
The Chance to Win donut chart visualises the current Yes vs No probability split for a specific market. The percentages are derived directly from live Yes Price and No Price values. A Yes reading of 16.3% and No of 83.7% means the market currently prices in an 83.7% chance this outcome will not happen.
What does Average Entry Price in the Top Holders table mean?
Average Entry Price (Avg Price) is the weighted average price at which a wallet bought its shares. Comparing this to the current Yes or No Price shows whether a holder is currently in profit or at a loss. A wallet that entered at $0.20 with a current price of $0.16 is sitting at an unrealized loss, visible in the PnL column next to it.
How does this prediction market resolve, and what happens if it is canceled?
When the real-world event concludes, the market passes through statuses: Active → Closed → Settled → Resolved → Finalized. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares pay $0.00. The resolution is confirmed by an Oracle — UMA on Polymarket, or API/Manual Check on Kalshi. If a market is canceled before resolution, all positions are returned to holders at their original entry price.