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Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

«Presidential Election Winner 2028» is a prediction market on Polymarket. The chart shows real-time probability changes across all outcomes. Track top holders, trading volume, and liquidity for each outcome. The market resolves on Nov 7, 2028.

Active

11.07.2025 - 07.11.2028

37 Markets

Politics

Polymarket

Markets Statistics

Total Volume

$ 655.47M

Liquidity

$ 37.56M


Volume

$ 1.33M

-32.1%

Start Date

Jul 11, 2025

Resolution Date

Nov 7, 2028

Oracle

UMA

Outcome Probabilities

JD Vance

19.9%

+0.51%

Marco Rubio

13.8%

+0.73%

Gavin Newsom

11.6%

0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

7.7%

0%

Start Date

Jul 11, 2025

Resolution Date

Nov 7, 2028

Oracle

UMA

Key Metrics

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.199

No Price

$0.802

Total Volume

$14.61M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.138

No Price

$0.862

Total Volume

$11.13M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.116

No Price

$0.885

Total Volume

$17.33M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.077

No Price

$0.923

Total Volume

$12.56M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.072

No Price

$0.929

Total Volume

$5.04M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.042

No Price

$0.959

Total Volume

$8.28M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.029

No Price

$0.972

Total Volume

$6.89M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.023

No Price

$0.978

Total Volume

$7.54M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.02

No Price

$0.981

Total Volume

$13.55M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.016

No Price

$0.985

Total Volume

$7.99M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.015

No Price

$0.986

Total Volume

$12.06M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.014

No Price

$0.987

Total Volume

$8.80M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.012

No Price

$0.989

Total Volume

$7.54M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.011

No Price

$0.99

Total Volume

$13.26M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.011

No Price

$0.99

Total Volume

$18.77M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.009

No Price

$0.992

Total Volume

$34.85M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.009

No Price

$0.992

Total Volume

$10.39M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.009

No Price

$0.992

Total Volume

$6.37M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$26.13M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$25.37M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$18.03M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$32.99M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$7.40M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$12.28M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$32.93M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$10.16M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.008

No Price

$0.993

Total Volume

$11.51M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.007

No Price

$0.994

Total Volume

$28.15M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.007

No Price

$0.994

Total Volume

$38.36M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.007

No Price

$0.994

Total Volume

$13.46M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.007

No Price

$0.994

Total Volume

$17.87M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.007

No Price

$0.994

Total Volume

$36.23M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.006

No Price

$0.995

Total Volume

$53.43M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.006

No Price

$0.995

Total Volume

$8.04M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.006

No Price

$0.995

Total Volume

$21.05M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.005

No Price

$0.996

Total Volume

$43.28M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

Market Overview

Yes Price

$0.004

No Price

$0.997

Total Volume

$1.66M

TVL (Top 10 Holders)

N/A

Top Holders

FAQ

What is the «Presidential Election Winner 2028» prediction market?

This is a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the outcome of «Presidential Election Winner 2028». It contains 37 markets, each representing a possible outcome. Trading is open until Nov 7, 2028, after which the correct outcome is confirmed and payouts are finalized.

What do Yes Price and No Price mean?

Yes Price is the current market probability that this specific outcome will happen — a Yes Price of $0.16 means traders collectively estimate a 16% chance. No Price reflects the probability it won't happen. The two always sum to approximately $1.00 and update in real time as traders buy and sell positions.

How accurate are prediction market odds compared to real outcomes?

Research consistently shows prediction markets are well-calibrated — events priced at 70% tend to occur roughly 70% of the time, often outperforming traditional polls and analyst forecasts. The Event Chart on this page shows how probabilities have shifted over time, reflecting how new information gets priced in by traders with real money at stake.

How do I read the Event Chart?

The Event Chart shows how the probability of the top-4 outcomes has changed over time. Each coloured line represents one market — the higher the line, the higher the probability traders assign to that outcome. You can switch between timeframes (1H, 6H, 1D, 7D, All) to see short-term momentum or the full history since the market opened.

How do I use this page to track smart money and whale activity?

The Top Holders section shows the largest Yes and No position holders for each market — these are the wallets with the most capital at stake. Their Average Entry Price reveals when they entered and at what conviction level. The TVL (Top 10 Holders) metric shows how much of the total market value is concentrated in the largest positions. A high TVL relative to Total Volume signals that a few large traders are driving price discovery.

What is TVL (Top 10 Holders) and why does it matter?

TVL stands for Total Value Locked — it is the combined dollar value of shares held by the top 10 largest position holders in this market. High TVL relative to Total Volume indicates that a small number of large traders dominate the market, which can make prices more sensitive to their activity and trades.

How do prediction market odds differ from traditional sportsbook odds?

Sportsbooks set odds themselves and profit from the spread between sides. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi work differently — prices emerge from actual supply and demand between traders, so they reflect the collective estimate of probability more directly. There is no house edge built in. On this page you can compare Yes and No prices across all outcomes and see how market consensus evolves in real time.

What is the Chance to Win chart?

The Chance to Win donut chart visualises the current Yes vs No probability split for a specific market. The percentages are derived directly from live Yes Price and No Price values. A Yes reading of 16.3% and No of 83.7% means the market currently prices in an 83.7% chance this outcome will not happen.

What does Average Entry Price in the Top Holders table mean?

Average Entry Price (Avg Price) is the weighted average price at which a wallet bought its shares. Comparing this to the current Yes or No Price shows whether a holder is currently in profit or at a loss. A wallet that entered at $0.20 with a current price of $0.16 is sitting at an unrealized loss, visible in the PnL column next to it.

How does this prediction market resolve, and what happens if it is canceled?

When the real-world event concludes, the market passes through statuses: Active → Closed → Settled → Resolved → Finalized. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares pay $0.00. The resolution is confirmed by an Oracle — UMA on Polymarket, or API/Manual Check on Kalshi. If a market is canceled before resolution, all positions are returned to holders at their original entry price.