Question 1

What is the «Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?» prediction market?

Accepted Answer

This is a prediction market on Kalshi tracking the outcome of «Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?». It contains 29 markets, each representing a possible outcome. Trading is open until Jan 21, 2029, after which the correct outcome is confirmed and payouts are finalized.

Question 2

What do Yes Price and No Price mean?

Accepted Answer

Yes Price is the current market probability that this specific outcome will happen — a Yes Price of $0.16 means traders collectively estimate a 16% chance. No Price reflects the probability it won't happen. The two always sum to approximately $1.00 and update in real time as traders buy and sell positions.

Question 3

How accurate are prediction market odds compared to real outcomes?

Accepted Answer

Research consistently shows prediction markets are well-calibrated — events priced at 70% tend to occur roughly 70% of the time, often outperforming traditional polls and analyst forecasts. The Event Chart on this page shows how probabilities have shifted over time, reflecting how new information gets priced in by traders with real money at stake.

Question 4

How do I read the Event Chart?

Accepted Answer

The Event Chart shows how the probability of the top-4 outcomes has changed over time. Each coloured line represents one market — the higher the line, the higher the probability traders assign to that outcome. You can switch between timeframes (1H, 6H, 1D, 7D, All) to see short-term momentum or the full history since the market opened.

Question 5

How do I use this page to track smart money and whale activity?

Accepted Answer

The Top Holders section shows the largest Yes and No position holders for each market — these are the wallets with the most capital at stake. Their Average Entry Price reveals when they entered and at what conviction level. The TVL (Top 10 Holders) metric shows how much of the total market value is concentrated in the largest positions. A high TVL relative to Total Volume signals that a few large traders are driving price discovery.

Question 6

What is TVL (Top 10 Holders) and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

TVL stands for Total Value Locked — it is the combined dollar value of shares held by the top 10 largest position holders in this market. High TVL relative to Total Volume indicates that a small number of large traders dominate the market, which can make prices more sensitive to their activity and trades.

Question 7

How do prediction market odds differ from traditional sportsbook odds?

Accepted Answer

Sportsbooks set odds themselves and profit from the spread between sides. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi work differently — prices emerge from actual supply and demand between traders, so they reflect the collective estimate of probability more directly. There is no house edge built in. On this page you can compare Yes and No prices across all outcomes and see how market consensus evolves in real time.

Question 8

What is the Chance to Win chart?

Accepted Answer

The Chance to Win donut chart visualises the current Yes vs No probability split for a specific market. The percentages are derived directly from live Yes Price and No Price values. A Yes reading of 16.3% and No of 83.7% means the market currently prices in an 83.7% chance this outcome will not happen.

Question 9

What does Average Entry Price in the Top Holders table mean?

Accepted Answer

Average Entry Price (Avg Price) is the weighted average price at which a wallet bought its shares. Comparing this to the current Yes or No Price shows whether a holder is currently in profit or at a loss. A wallet that entered at $0.20 with a current price of $0.16 is sitting at an unrealized loss, visible in the PnL column next to it.

Question 10

How does this prediction market resolve, and what happens if it is canceled?

Accepted Answer

When the real-world event concludes, the market passes through statuses: Active → Closed → Settled → Resolved → Finalized. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares pay $0.00. The resolution is confirmed by an Oracle — UMA on Polymarket, or API/Manual Check on Kalshi. If a market is canceled before resolution, all positions are returned to holders at their original entry price.

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?