After showing signs of recovery last week, Bitcoin appears to have lost its upward momentum once again. The cryptocurrency was closing in on the $90,000 psychological level but has since reversed direction, falling by 6.4% over the past week to hover around $82,000 at the time of writing.

This decline has placed renewed attention on market metrics that suggest the rally may have been short-lived. Amid this downward movement, several on-chain analysts have raised questions about whether recent price trends reflect real demand or speculative behavior.

Particularly, insights from CryptoQuant contributors point to warning signs, including a divergence between market capitalization and actual network activity.

NVT Indicator Signals Caution Amid Low Transaction Volume

In a recent post titled “Manipulative Moves or True Value? A Bitcoin and NVT Analysis,” CryptoQuant analyst BorisVest pointed to the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio as a critical metric for understanding current market dynamics.

The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market capitalization by its daily transaction volume. According to BorisVest, Bitcoin’s elevated NVT Golden Cross reading indicates a high market cap against low transaction activity — a combination that historically suggests price inflation driven by speculative interest rather than organic growth.

BorisVest emphasized that periods with a high NVT often precede market corrections. In contrast, when the NVT falls into the green zone — signaling a low market cap with rising transaction volume — it may present a stronger foundation for price appreciation.

As of now, the metric suggests Bitcoin’s recent price rise lacks transactional support, and continued pullbacks remain possible unless volume returns to the network.

Bitcoin Speculators Absent, Sentiment Remains Cautious

Adding to the cautious outlook, another CryptoQuant contributor known as crypto sunmoon highlighted the role of leverage in driving crypto bull markets.

The analyst pointed out that funding rates have recently “dead-crossed,” which occurs when short-term funding rates fall below long-term rates, often indicating bearish sentiment among traders.

According to sunmoon, this shift suggests that speculators are currently unwilling to take on risk — a key component needed to fuel bullish price movements.

The analyst concluded that the return of speculative trading behavior, typically marked by rising funding rates and leveraged positions, is essential for reigniting upward momentum in Bitcoin.

Until then, market sentiment may remain subdued, with sideways or declining price action more likely. According to these CryptoQuant analysts, watching Bitcoin’s transaction volumes and funding trends will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin is set for a renewed breakout or further consolidation.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The Shiba Inu cryptocurrency surpassing Cardano remains a pretty speculative topic that fascinates crypto investors, especially as SHIB continues to trade around the $0.000012 mark. At the time of writing, many traders and enthusiasts are wondering about this possibility, and this analysis explores what price SHIB would need to reach to equal Cardano’s market cap and whether such an ambitious milestone is even achievable in the current market environment.

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Can Shiba Inu Overtake Cardano? Market Cap & Price Outlook

Current Market Positions

SHIB is currently trading at about $0.00001218, which is down around 12.6% month-to-date and also down 7.49% over the past week or so. The token has actually fallen about 63.41% from its December peak of $0.00003329.

According to the latest data, approximately 85.22% of all Shiba Inu holders are currently sitting in losses.

Meanwhile, Cardano currently holds the ninth position globally, with a market cap of around $23.15 billion and a price of about $0.6566. Shiba Inu ranks 17th with a $7.16 billion market cap – creating quite a substantial gap that Shiba Inu would need to overcome if it were to surpass Cardano anytime soon.

The Market Cap Challenge

For Shiba Inu to surpass Cardano, a rather massive 224% increase in market capitalization would be required at this point. This significant growth would essentially push SHIB’s overall valuation from the current $7.16 billion up to approximately $23.16 billion, potentially positioning it ahead of ADA as the ninth-largest cryptocurrency – assuming, of course, that Cardano experiences no comparable growth during the same timeframe.

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SHIB Price Target Analysis

A market cap equivalent to Cardano’s current valuation would translate to approximately $0.00003930 per SHIB token, based on its rather enormous 589.25 trillion circulating supply. This price target represents a pretty significant increase from current levels but, interestingly enough, remains about 55.56% below Shiba Inu’s all-time high of $0.00008845.

Shiba Inu last approached this particular price level on March 6, 2024, after surprisingly surging to $0.000045 just a day earlier. The token has struggled quite a bit to recapture that $0.000039 mark since then, despite various market developments and continued investor interest.

Expert Predictions

Several prediction platforms have shared forecasts about when Shiba Inu might surpass Cardano in market cap might happen through substantial price appreciation.

The crypto prediction platform Changelly forecasts that SHIB will revisit the $0.000039 price mark by December 2026.

Meanwhile, the prediction platform Telegaon believes SHIB will hit its target [$0.000039] this year.

Investor Sentiment Despite Losses

Despite the fact that 85.22% of holders are currently in losses and only about 10.59% in profit, many investors still maintain a surprising amount of confidence that Shiba Inu could eventually surpass Cardano through significant price appreciation in the coming months or years.

Market Challenges Ahead

Whether Shiba Inu surpassing Cardano becomes an actual reality depends largely on SHIB achieving that 224% growth while ADA remains somewhat stagnant. The token faces several significant hurdles, including persistent market volatility, ongoing regulatory uncertainties, and also increasing competition from other popular meme cryptocurrencies.

The path to reaching that $0.000039 price point will likely be influenced by broader market conditions, continued Shibarium development progress, and also potential shifts in investor sentiment toward meme tokens in general.

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For now, the idea represents an interesting hypothetical scenario rather than an imminent reality – but if achieved, it would certainly mark a rather remarkable transformation in SHIB’s overall market position.