Trump’s Greenland Gambit Is Turning Into a Crypto Prediction Trade

• Polymarket odds for the US acquiring Greenland jumped from 7% to over 21% in two weeks.
• Kalshi shows a 46% chance that Trump will take over part of Greenland.
• Trump tied Greenland directly to tariffs, and now markets are shaky. 

The market is no longer treating Greenland as a joke trade. On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the United States takes control of Greenland before 2027 moved from 7-8% at the start of the year to around 21-22% this week.

More than $14 million sits in the contract, placing it among the largest active bets on the platform. Two large wallets added roughly $300,000 combined on the “Yes” side over the last two weeks, locking in potential payouts near $750,000 each if the outcome hits.

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