Crude Oil Prices: Surge as Brent and WTI Rally on Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Crude oil prices remained elevated Friday as disruptions in the Middle East kept supply risks firmly in focus. Brent crude held above $93 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded near $87, leaving both benchmarks on course for another strong weekly gain despite weaker U.S. demand signals.

Brent and WTI Oil Prices Head for Weekly Gains

Brent crude futures traded at $93.55 a barrel at 1:42 a.m. GMT on Aug. 21, down 0.3% on the session, while U.S. WTI slipped 0.4% to $86.50. The modest pullback followed five straight sessions of gains during which Brent climbed more than 7% and WTI advanced more than 8%.

Middle East supply remains the main driver. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate far below normal levels amid the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict. Only seven commodity ships passed through the strait Thursday, compared with 14 a day earlier, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption moved through the waterway.

Brent Crude Oil Tests $96.80 Resistance as Uptrend Builds. TEKNİK PARA (@teknikpara) on X 

The supplied daily Brent cash chart shows price pressing against an annotated resistance area around $96.80, while an ascending trendline supports the recovery from the July low. The chart marks $87 as an important lower reference area. A decisive move above $96.80 would strengthen the bullish setup shown on the chart, while a breakdown through the rising trendline would weaken it.

WTI Chart Maps a Possible Move Toward $100

WTI has also recovered sharply after trading near $75 earlier in August.

WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave Setup Eyes $100 With $80.09 Invalidation. Source: Elliott Wave Strategy

The four-hour USOIL chart from Elliott Wave Strategy shows an Elliott Wave interpretation in which the recovery could extend toward the $100 area. Importantly, that blue projected path represents the analyst's scenario rather than a guaranteed price target.

The chart identifies $80.09 as the invalidation level. Holding above that level keeps the displayed bullish wave structure intact, while a break below it would undermine the setup.

Inventories Rise as OPEC+ Adds Supply

U.S. inventory data provides a counterweight to the geopolitical rally. Commercial crude stocks increased by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 14, matching the five-year seasonal average. Refineries operated at a high 97.2% of capacity.

Demand indicators were softer. Total petroleum products supplied averaged 20.5 million barrels per day over the latest four weeks, 2.9% below a year earlier. However, distillate inventories fell 1.5 million barrels and remain about 13% below their five-year average, highlighting continued tightness in parts of the fuel market.

OPEC+ will also increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in September, although continuing Middle East disruptions could limit how much additional supply reaches the global market.

Weaker U.S. Dollar Offers Oil Additional Support

A falling dollar is providing another supportive factor for crude prices.

The supplied daily DXY chart shows the dollar index near 98.72, well below its 50-day exponential moving average around 100.05. The decline follows a rejection from the 101.5 area and leaves the short-term dollar trend under pressure.

Because crude oil is priced in dollars, a weaker U.S. currency can make oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Reuters also reported Friday that the dollar was heading for a weekly decline.

Crude Oil Price Outlook

Oil's near-term outlook remains dominated by supply risk. Brent's $96.80 chart resistance and WTI's recovery toward the upper $80s will be important areas to watch.

At the same time, rising U.S. inventories, softer petroleum demand and additional OPEC+ production could limit gains. The IEA now expects global oil demand to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, but it also projects a 1.8 million-bpd market deficit in the third quarter because of supply disruptions.