Tariffs, Volatility And The Startup Exit Dilemma
By Don Butler
At Thomvest Ventures, we’ve been investing in venture for three decades, and yet today we face what feels like a novel turn of events: a potential recession and increasing exit uncertainty due to government-induced volatility.
For an ecosystem that has long awaited the return of robust exit volumes, the uncertainty in the markets couldn’t come at a worse time.
Record capital, weak exits
We are at a unique point in time given the record amount of venture capital put to work in companies since 2020. We have an overabundance of startups that have raised significant amounts of capital. After the IPO boom of 2021, we’ve seen anemic IPO volumes and weak M&A volumes.
The exit markets in the past few years have shown a flight to quality by both IPO and M&A buyers. Where the threshold to go public might have been $150 million to $200 million of annual recurring revenue in years gone by, that has risen to about $400 million today.
At the same time, the combination of high interest rates and uncertainty regarding a possible recession in the past few years led to weak M&A volumes by private equity and corporate buyers, with buyers placing primacy on the efficiency of the businesses being acquired.
The importance of exits
The venture capital ecosystem needs successful exits to thrive. The limited partners that invest in venture funds look to exits as vindication of both the asset class itself and the specific fund managers they have selected.
Many of us were optimistic that this would be the year we would see a return in IPO volumes and a resurgence in M&A under the new, more pro-business administration. While the outlook for regulatory approval of acquisitions has improved, the tariffs have introduced a new source of concern; we have replaced the excessive regulatory scrutiny of the past administration with uncertainty driven by regulatory volatility.
A glimmer of optimism?
One potential silver lining is that the pressures of a recession and tariff-induced inflation could eventually force a lowering of interest rates in the coming quarters. While this outcome is not guaranteed, such a move might help stabilize the market and mitigate some of the current challenges. A lowering of interest rates would not only make it easier for private equity firms to use debt for company acquisitions, but could also kickstart areas of the economy — such as the housing market — that have stalled.
As the VC ecosystem learns to adapt to this new type of volatility, the return of healthy exit volumes looks likely to remain an elusive goal for all but the very best of companies in this environment.
Don Butler is a managing director at Thomvest Ventures, a $500 million evergreen VC fund founded by Peter Thomson (Thomson Reuters). His investments are focused on financial technology and marketing technology companies that leverage emerging and persistent data sources to better acquire and serve customers.
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Illustration: Dom Guzman
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Former Riot Platforms VP launches Bitcoin securitization venture to ‘accelerate the adoption flywheel’
Pierre Rochard announced on April 7 a new firm focused on Bitcoin (BTC)-backed structured finance, called The Bitcoin Bond Company, with the goal of acquiring $1 trillion in BTC by 2046 on behalf of its clients.
Rochard is the former vice president of research at Riot Platforms and will serve as CEO of the new BTC-focused venture.
The company plans to bridge institutional capital with Bitcoin through a regulated framework of structured products with third-party custody.
Bitcoin products for institutional demand
According to Rochard, the firm will target credit allocators seeking volatility protection and equity risk-takers pursuing Bitcoin outperformance. Its long-term goal, subject to market conditions, includes acquiring $1 trillion worth of BTC on behalf of clients over the next 21 years.
Providing further context to CryptoSlate on the timing and motivation behind the launch, he noted that the concept of a BTC-backed securitization company had been on his mind since first learning about Bitcoin, aligning naturally with his background in asset-backed finance.
Rochard said the idea became more tangible following the election of President Donald Trump, which signaled a shift in regulatory posture.
He added:
“Going forward, the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] will be depoliticized and merit-neutral, meaning that bitcoin-backed financial products will be regulated in a balanced way to protect the integrity of US capital markets. This will give established financial institutions the comfort needed to constructively engage with bitcoin.”
Rochard highlighted a vision for expanding access to Bitcoin’s utility by packaging the asset into structured finance vehicles that meet institutional requirements for transparency, regulation, and risk management.
This approach aligns with a broader trend of institutional products built on top of crypto-native assets, including exchange-traded products (ETPs) and asset-backed notes.
The announcement stated:
“The Bitcoin Bond Company’s mission is to create long-term relationships between credit allocators and risk-takers. We can unlock value for capital markets with bitcoin-backed structured finance that provides transparent, regulated, and efficient risk transfer for the global strategic reserve asset.”
He added that the success of recently launched Bitcoin ETFs has validated market appetite, assessing that metrics make these funds “the most successful product launches in the history of the financial industry.”
Rochard argued that institutional investors are often constrained by volatility, while risk-seeking participants are looking for leveraged opportunities. He sees The Bitcoin Bond Company’s role as bridging these profiles with structured instruments designed to accommodate both.
“The Bitcoin Bond Company’s mission is to bring these two categories together with responsible bitcoin-backed products that create long-term value for both sides.”
Utility and Satoshi’s vision
Rochard framed the launch as part of a broader effort to fulfill Bitcoin’s original utility as decentralized, electronic cash.
He said that Bitcoin’s market divides participants into four categories: those who dismiss it, cautious investors wary of volatility, speculators who attempt to outperform it, and sovereign individuals who fully adopt it.
He emphasized that decentralization remains Bitcoin’s core utility, offering users sovereign control over their capital. Rochard concluded with a view that capital markets will increasingly recognize Bitcoin as a strategic collateral asset.
He said:
“It’s inevitable that the capital markets will recognize bitcoin as a unique collateral diversifier in many different contexts: sovereign debt issuance, corporate convertible bonds, and asset-backed securities. Each of these will find investors with different objectives and risk tolerances. Growing the market will foster demand for the underlying bitcoin and accelerate the adoption flywheel.”
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