Bitcoin & Ethereum Ride Polymarket’s Fed Rate Cut Sentiment. Is Overbought Next?

• Polymarket odds show 90% chance of a Fed cut as crypto bets pile in.
• Bitcoin trades above $120K with $73B daily volume, signaling strong liquidity.
• Ethereum climbs near $4,470 as Uptober rally builds momentum.

Prediction markets are leaning hard toward monetary easing, and crypto is responding. Polymarket odds now show a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, with a 25-basis-point move as the clear favorite. By contrast, the likelihood of no policy change has slipped to 8%, and wagers on a deeper 50 bps cut remain capped at 3-4%.

That surge in conviction marks a sharp turn from midsummer sentiment. Back in July, Polymarket traders gave the same 25 bps cut just a 40% chance. By late September, odds were north of 70%. The steady climb to today’s 90% shows how markets have re-priced the Fed’s path heading into Q4.

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