Gold Price Forecast: Gold Holds $4,060 as Citi Targets $4,500

Gold traded near $4,060 an ounce Tuesday as geopolitical risk supported demand while expectations for higher U.S. interest rates limited the rebound. Technical charts show buyers regaining some momentum, but gold must clear resistance between $4,100 and $4,110 before the short-term outlook turns decisively bullish.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,062.41 an ounce by 5:04 a.m. GMT on Aug. 4, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,117.50. Traders were balancing uncertainty over possible U.S.-Iran negotiations against a roughly 65% market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.

The next immediate catalyst is the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday. Weaker labor demand could pressure the dollar and Treasury yields, helping gold, while stronger data could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Sellers Defend the $4,100-$4,110 Zone

Gold has recovered from its recent low, but the two-hour structure still shows a series of lower highs beneath descending resistance.

Gold Two-Hour Chart. Source: Forex Expertise on X

The first technical barrier sits near the descending trendline around $4,070. Above that, the highlighted supply zone between $4,100 and $4,110 marks the more important test.

A firm two-hour close above $4,110, followed by a successful retest, would indicate that buyers have broken the bearish structure. Rejection from the trendline or supply zone would keep $4,020 in focus as the main short-term support. A sustained break below that level would weaken the recovery and expose the psychological $4,000 area.

Dollar and Treasury Yields Limit the Upside

Gold’s macro outlook depends heavily on how the dollar and government bond yields react to this week’s employment data.

Gold, U.S. Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart. Source: MacroMicro

The comparison chart shows gold-related assets remaining historically elevated even as the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yield stay firm. That suggests geopolitical demand and portfolio diversification have partly offset the pressure from higher borrowing costs.

Citi expects gold to stagnate or decline over the coming month before rising to $4,500 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $5,000 during the first half of 2027. That remains a conditional institutional forecast, not a guaranteed price path.

ETF Demand Remains Positive for 2026

Investment flows provide a mixed picture, with recent selling interrupting an otherwise positive first half.

Global Gold ETF Flows and Holdings Chart. Source: World Gold Council

Global physically backed gold funds recorded $8.9 billion of outflows in June. However, first-half flows remained positive at $8 billion, while collective holdings increased by 18 metric tons to 4,047 tons. Asian funds led the inflows, while North America was the only region to record first-half outflows.

Gold therefore remains caught between safe-haven and institutional demand on one side and higher-rate expectations on the other. A confirmed break above $4,110 would favor the bullish scenario, while losing $4,020 would raise the risk of another test of $4,000.