Gold is just taking a breath; path to $5,000/oz still wide open

Gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, dipping below $4,500 per ounce and testing key technical support levels, but the long-term bull market remains firmly intact, according to portfolio manager Tom Winmill of the Midas Discovery Fund.

In an interview with Kitco News, Winmill emphasised that the current consolidation should be viewed as a healthy pause rather than a reversal. 

“Gold is just taking a breath and the race is not over,” he stated, underscoring his conviction that structural drivers continue to support higher prices ahead.

The yellow metal has faced pressure amid shifting market dynamics, including stronger US dollar moves and fluctuations in Treasury yields.

Yet Winmill sees these as temporary headwinds in what he describes as a secular bull market for gold.

Strong fundamentals underpin outlook

Winmill pointed to persistent global fiscal imbalances as a core reason for optimism.

“There’s no way back from the fiscal imbalances, and gold benefits,” he noted, highlighting how elevated government debt levels and monetary policy realities create a favorable environment for precious metals.

Central bank buying remains a powerful tailwind, with many emerging market institutions continuing to diversify reserves away from traditional currencies.

This demand floor, combined with investor interest in gold as a hedge against uncertainty, provides significant support even during periods of consolidation. 

The portfolio manager also drew attention to gold equities, which he believes offer compelling value after the recent correction in the sector. 

Mining companies have strengthened their balance sheets through disciplined capital allocation and are now generating robust cash flows.

Winmill views gold stocks as a strategic opportunity for investors seeking leveraged exposure to rising metal prices.

Path to higher prices remains open

Looking further ahead, Winmill has previously expressed bullish targets, including scenarios where gold could approach or exceed $5,000 per ounce. 

He maintains that the path to such levels is “wide open,” driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors including potential monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and ongoing de-dollarization trends.

Despite short-term volatility, the Midas Discovery Fund manager advised patience.

The recent pullback, in his view, represents a breathing period that allows the market to reset before the next leg higher. 

Investors who focus on fundamentals rather than daily price action are likely to be rewarded as the cycle matures.

Portfolio positioning and strategy

At Midas Discovery, Winmill’s approach centers on a mix of established producers and select development-stage companies with strong assets.

Holdings have historically included names like Barrick Gold and Newmont, alongside royalty companies that provide lower-risk exposure to gold price upside.

The fund’s long-term track record reflects success in navigating precious metals cycles, aiming to preserve and grow purchasing power through strategic investments in gold, silver, and related hard assets.

Winmill has managed the fund for over two decades, emphasizing a disciplined, value-oriented style.

Current market conditions, with gold testing its 200-day moving average, present what Winmill sees as an attractive entry or accumulation point for both physical metal and equities. 

He cautioned, however, that volatility will persist, particularly as markets digest economic data and geopolitical developments.

Broader market context

Gold’s performance in 2026 has been marked by significant swings following a strong prior year.

While prices have retreated from peaks above $4,500, many analysts continue to forecast substantial upside over the medium term, with some projections targeting $5,000 or higher by year-end or into 2027.

Winmill’s message aligns with this constructive view, reinforcing that structural bull market drivers have not been exhausted. 

For investors, the current environment calls for a focus on quality assets and a long-term horizon rather than attempting to time short-term moves.

As global uncertainties persist, from fiscal policy challenges to international tensions, Winmill believes gold’s role as a safe-haven and inflation hedge will only grow in importance.

The race, as he puts it, is far from over. 

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